Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2020 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

After a month-long shutdown of live sporting events due to COVID-19, the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft finally offers a “sporting event” worth watching live. This year’s draft coverage will either satiate our pent-up appetite for anything new or confirm that our lives remain on hold. The proverbial show must go on, so I offer my 2020 T10B Mock NFL Draft. As of now, the top 2 picks seem to be locks with LSU QB Joe Burrow going to the Cincinnati Bengals and OSU DE Chase Young going to the team based in our nation’s capital. After that, opinions differ depending on the perception of Alabama QB Tua Tagovailova’s health. At this point, I don’t care whether I’m right or wrong. I just want to return to some normalcy. 

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2019 NFL Draft – T10B Projections

I had finished writing most of this article prior to the start of the 2019 NFL season, but never posted it. Based on my prediction that 2019 #1 overall pick Kyler Murray has/had the best chance of being a bust, I presume you’ll trust me that I didn’t change my initial assessments. Even after watching Murray’s strong start to his career, which resulted in him being named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, I just don’t see him as another sub-6′ QB who can beat the odds.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2019 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

In the T10B 2018 Mock NFL Draft, I boldly predicted that four quarterbacks would go with the first four picks. I missed the mark with my prediction, but QBs still dominated the early part of the draft. Of note, teams selected four quarterbacks with top 10 picks for the first time in history. I believe that defensive players similarly will dominate the early part of the 2019 NFL Draft with at least five defensive linemen going in the top 10. At the same time, I predict that the draft will be remembered for a quarterback (i.e. Kyler Murray) who doesn’t live up to expectations. 

Projections

2018 NFL DRAFT – FIRST IMPRESSIONS

In the 2018 NFL Draft, quarterbacks went with four of the top 10 overall picks for the first time in history. As a result, draft pundits will evaluate this year’s draft class based on the success or failure of QBs Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen. Running back Shaquon Barkley certainly will be part of the conversation, but likely in reference to how he performs relative to the three QBs taken after him. Hopefully, linebacker Shaquem Griffin is not just a footnote and gets remembered for having a successful NFL career despite missing his left hand. It’ll be at least five years before I can definitively declare any Top 10 Busts. In the meantime, I’ll offer my assessment of the early favorites.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2018 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

With respect to quarterbacks, the 1983 and 1999 draft classes stand out among the rest. Of note, a record six QBs went in the 1st round of the 1983 NFL Draft. Furthermore, teams took QBs with the first three and five of the top 12 overall picks in the 1999 NFL Draft. I believe the 2018 draft class will join these others in the record books based on the fervor surrounding this year’s crop of signal callers. Specifically, I predict that teams will use the top four 2018 draft picks on quarterbacks. Let the games begin!

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2017 Potential Bust: Mitch Trubisky

Shortly after the conclusion of the 2017 NFL Draft, I offered my initial impressions of the first 10 overall picks. At that time, I commented that seven of those players raised red flags as potential underperformers. Out of those seven, I identified three as the most likely busts. Out of those three, I identified one as the most likely Top 10 Bust. Without further ado, I offer you Mitch “My Mom calls me Mitchell” Trubisky. 

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2017 NFL Draft: First Impressions

As a follow-up to the first ever T10B Mock Draft, I offer my initial assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2017 NFL Draft. After all, these players are the only ones drafted high enough to become Top 10 Busts. As of now, I predict that the top of this draft has the potential to be one of the worst ever. At the same time, this might be one of the deepest drafts ever. Don’t be surprised if many later-round picks surpass the careers of the players highlighted in this post.

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2017 Mock NFL Draft: Top 10 Picks

For the first time, I’ll use my analytical skills to predict the first 10 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Now, others can judge me just like I’ve judged them. Will I be right? Of course not. However, I fully appreciate that there’s more value in the prediction than in the evaluation. In that regard, I’ll offer my version of a 2017 Mock NFL Draft.

NFL Side Stories

Top10Busts Football Index: TFI

Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson’s Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the T10B Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy showed what teams are willing to do. In comparison, I’m trying to show what teams should do.

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Projected 2016 NFL Draft Busts (Overall)

With only a couple days to go before the start of the NFL season, I feel compelled to put a stake in the ground regarding potential 2016 NFL Draft Busts. Prior to the start of training camp this summer, I thought the most likely (although still improbable) busts included: #1 pick Jared Goff; #9 pick Leonard Floyd; and #10 pick Eli Apple. However, #3 pick Joey Bosa has become my overwhelming favorite as a potential Top 10 Bust based on his extended holdout. Jameis Winston received that same designation last year so Bosa shouldn’t be too worried. Or should he?