Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2019 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

Synopsis: In the T10B 2018 Mock NFL Draft, I boldly predicted that four quarterbacks would go with the first four picks. I missed the mark with my prediction, but QBs still dominated the early part of the draft. Of note, teams selected four quarterbacks with top 10 picks for the first time in history. I believe that defensive players similarly will dominate the early part of the 2019 NFL Draft with at least five defensive linemen going in the top 10. At the same time, I predict that the draft will be remembered for a quarterback (i.e. Kyler Murray) who doesn’t live up to expectations. 


2019 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

The following table highlights my prediction for the top 10 picks of the 2019 NFL Draft. To be clear, I’m not claiming that these players should be the ones taken by the teams which currently hold the picks. Instead, I have attempted to identify the players whom I believe will be selected with the first 10 overall picks.

2019 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT WITH RANKINGS BY OTHER SERVICES
Pick Team Player Position College CBS Sports Walter Football NFL.com Rating NFL Network Avg Rank
#1 Arizona Kyler Murray QB Okla 1 1 10 1 3
#2 San Francisco Nick Bosa DE Ohio St 2 3 4 2 1
#3 NY Jets Quinnen Williams DE Bama 4 2 1 4 1
#4 Oakland Josh Allen OLB Kentucky 3 4 3 5 4
#5 Tampa Bay Montez Sweat DE Miss St 11 5 6 17 8
#6 NY Giants Dwayne Haskins QB Ohio St 7 11 15 11 11
#7 Jacksonville Jawaan Taylor OT Florida 9 7 18 7 10
#8 Detroit Ed Oliver DT Houston 8 9 9 3 5
#9 Buffalo Devin White ILB LSU 5 8 11 10 6
#10 Denver Rashan Gary DE Mich 13 6 7 13 8

In case its not obvious, there’s a high correlation between the average of the four sources I used to evaluate potential Top 10 picks. The differences involve:

  • Kyler Murray going #1 because of the fit between his skill set and Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Kliff Klingsbury’s offensive scheme.
  • Montez Sweat going #5 because his combination of size and athleticism are unmatched in this draft. Some draft analysts have Sweat dropping out of the top 10 due to an unspecified heart condition. Given that he received clearance to play college football and participate in the combine, I think it’s a smoke screen promoted by teams hoping to steal the pick.
  • Dwayne Haskins going #6 because the Giants need a quarterback, and Haskins is the best QB in the draft.
  • Jawann Taylor going #7 because the Jaguars need to protect their new QB (i.e. Nick Foles) and the low risk associated with highly drafted offensive linemen.
  • Based on these players going earlier than projected, the players who fell include Ed Oliver, Devin White, and Rashan Gary.
  • Despite ranking 7th based on an average of the four sources in the table, tight end T.J. Hockenson missed being a Top 10 pick in my mock draft. I don’t doubt his talent, but rather doubt that a team will draft a tight end that high.
2019 NFL DRAFT – COMBINE RESULTS

For those of you who haven’t read my previous posts, I value on-field performance (i.e. stats) much more than combine results. As validation, I offer the picture of Tom Brady from the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine.

TOM BRADY – 2000 NFL DRAFT COMBINE BATHING SUIT COMPETITION

Based on his physique, I don't think Brady won.

Furthermore, Brady ran a pathetically slow 5.28 time in the 40-yard dash and had an equally pathetic 28.5″ vertical leap. Based on his [lack of] physique, I don’t think Brady won the competition. For those of you who have the ability to see what others can’t, look at the first number below the line in the picture. If the 3 got changed to a 7, the 6043 would look even more like GOAT.

In contrast to Tom Brady, presumed 2019 #1 NFL Draft Pick Kyler Murray can hold his own in a bathing suit contest.

KYLER MURRAY – PRO-DAY BATHING SUIT COMPETITION

By the end of this week, Kyler Murray will become the first player to have been drafted in the first round of the MLB and NFL Drafts. Of note, Bo “Knows” Jackson went #1 in the 1986 NFL Draft but fell to the 4th round of the 1986 MLB Draft because most scouts thought Jackson would forego baseball and only play professional football. They apparently underestimated Jackson’s commitment to rebuff the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after they sabotaged his college baseball eligibility.

As a foreshadowing, Murray physical attributes seem less impressive when he stands among his peers.

KYLER MURRAY CLAIMING THE 2018 HEISMAN AWARD
The top three finalists for the 2018 Heisman included from left to right: Dwayne Haskins (6’3″), Kyler Murray (5’10”), and Tua Tagovailoa (6’1″). Murray either stood on a lower step, or got the benefit of his hair while being measured at the NFL combine.
2019 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT WITH COMBINE/PRO-DAY STATS
Pick Team Player Position College Height Weight 40 Time Vertical Leap Bench Press
#1 Arizona Kyler Murray QB Oklahoma 5′ 10″ 207 NA NA NA
#2 San Francisco Nick Bosa DE Ohio State 6′ 4″ 266 4.79 33.5 29
#3 NY Jets Quinnen Williams DE Alabama 6′ 3″ 303 4.83 30.5 NA
#4 Oakland Josh Allen OLB Kentucky 6′ 5″ 262 4.63 NA 28
#5 Tampa Bay Montez Sweat DE Mississippi State 6′ 6″ 260 4.41 36.0 21
#6 NY Giants Dwayne Haskins QB Ohio State 6′ 3″ 231 5.04 28.5 NA
#7 Jacksonville Jawaan Taylor OT Florida 6′ 5″ 312 NA NA 24
#8 Detroit Ed Oliver DT Houston 6′ 2″ 287 NA 36.0 32
#9 Buffalo Devin White ILB LSU 6′ 0″ 237 4.42 39.5 22
#10 Denver Rashan Gary DE Michigan 6′ 4″ 277 4.58 38.0 26

Relative to physical attributes, the outliers include:

  • Kyler Murray, who measured 5’10” (including hair?). Even though most NFL pundits have overcome Murray’s height deficiency, I haven’t. As a 2012 3rd round pick, Russell Wilson has proven that a sub-6′ tall QB can succeed in the NFL. I wouldn’t take the same bet on the 1st overall pick.
  • Montez Sweat, who has wide-receiver speed as a 260-pound, 6’6″ defensive end. As previously mentioned, I don’t think a team with an early pick will pass up on Sweat’s athleticism despite any concerns about a unspecified heart condition.
  • Dwayne Haskins, who recorded a surprisingly slow 5.04 time in the 40-yard dash. Then again, Brady ran it even slower at 5.28 seconds so it is basically irrelevant when evaluating pocket QBs.
POTENTIAL SURPRISES

As previously mentioned, T.J. Hockenson deserves consideration as an early pick so it wouldn’t be too surprising if he cracked the Top 10. Other potential party crashers include Alabama OT Jonah Williams (tied for 12th in T10B ranking), Clemson DT Christian Wilkins (14th in T10B ranking), and Mississippi WR D.K. Metcalf (tied 12th T10B ranking).

Given that teams act irrationally when trying to secure a potential franchise quarterback, Missouri’s Drew Luck and Duke’s Danial Jones might go earlier that projected. According to my T10B ranking, Luck projects at #19 while Jones projects at #22.

CONCLUSION

After umpteen mock drafts from umpteen NFL draft pundits, the 2019 NFL Draft has arrived. Will this draft be remembered as the year of defensive linemen? Alternatively, we will look back at 2019 as the year when Kyler Murray confirmed or reversed preconceptions about sub-6′ QBs? For the first time in umpteen years, I’ll miss the first night of the NFL Draft so I’ll have to get updates from my phone. Fortunately, I’ll be able to get my fix of Mel Kiper Jr. after getting home and watching the coverage on replay.

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