Unlike last year when Victor Wembanyama was a no brainer as the #1 overall pick, this year lacks the same overwhelming favorite. It seems very likely that either Zaccharie Risacher or Alex Sarr will go first in the 2024 NBA Draft. However, neither one will give the Hawks the same confidence that the Spurs had by taking Wemby one year ago. At this point, I’m having flashbacks to 2013 when there was no clear-cut top prospect and the Cavaliers took Anthony Bennett with the #1 overall pick. Point being, I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta picked any one of the top six players in the 2024 T10B Mock NBA Draft. Perhaps most surprising is that 2x NCAA Player-of-the-Year Zach Edey is not on anyone’s radar screen as a likely top 10 overall pick. I can understand teams with a top 5 pick looking elsewhere, but I just can’t imagine 10 players from the 2024 draft who will have better careers. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Top 10 NBA Draft Busts
2023 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
Synopsis: No brainer at #1 with Victor Wembanyama, who might be the most hyped draft pick ever. At a minimum, he has generated the same draft buzz as LeBron James. The 2023 NBA Draft forever will be linked to the career of the 7’4″ Frenchman. Anything short of all-time great will be a letdown. At least he’ll start his career with a great mentor in Coach Pop.
2022 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
SYNOPSIS: This post serves as a placeholder for the 2022 T10B Mock NBA Draft. More support and analysis to follow…
2021 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
Synopsis: Going into the 2021 NBA Draft, the worst kept secret is the selection of Cade Cunningham by the Detroit…
2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
Thanks to the shutdown following the spread of COVID-19, the 2020 NBA delayed its annual draft from June to November. Despite the additional time to conduct research, I only started my analysis several days ago. Still, I feel confident in the accuracy of my 2020 T10B Mock NBA Draft. The shortened college season and limiting scouting may complicate matters, but not relative to my approach.
2019 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
Regardless of which player from the 2019 NBA Draft has the best career, it will be remembered as the “One with Zion Williamson.” Williamson will live up to the hype or get overshadowed by another player. Either way, he will be in the center of the discussion as the certain #1 overall pick. The next two picks of Ja Morant and RJ Barrett seem almost as certain. After that, the draft should open up with five picks battling for the next five spots. I considered six players for the final two spots in my top 10.
2018 Potential NBA Draft Bust: Wendell Carter Jr.
When committing to Duke, Wendell Carter Jr. thought he would be the best one-and-done Blue Devil available for the 2018 NBA Draft. Unfortunately, 2018 #2 overall pick Marvin Bagley graduated high school early and joined him for their one-year college basketball experience. Carter’s stat line of 13.5 ppg and 9.1 rpg fell short of Bagley’s production of 21.0 ppg and 11.1 rpg. The lesser regarded Dukie can’t be too upset going to the Chicago Bulls with the 7th overall pick. Then again, former Duke players haven’t had the best success in the NBA so perhaps he should be concerned.
2018 Potential Draft Bust: Mo Bamba
During his one season at the University of Texas, Mo Bamba proved to be a defensive stalwart who led the Big 12 in rebounds and finished second in the NCAA in blocks. Given that you can’t teach size, Bamba became a very desirable pick due to 6’11” height and 7’10” wingspan. While I agree that he draws a valid comparison to 2017-18 Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, it’s possible that the 2018 #6 overall draft pick could turn into T10B Hasheem Thabeet instead. Using those two comparable players as the upper and lower bounds, I predict Bamba will have an NBA career closer to the top than the bottom.
2018 Potential NBA Draft Bust: Trae Young
Oklahoma point guard Trae Young led the NCAA in both scoring (27.4 ppg) and assists (8.7 apg) for the 2017-18 college basketball season. By doing something that had never been done before, Young became a consensus 1st Team All-American. With those credentials, it should be hard to argue against Young’s selection as the 5th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Still, I’m not convinced that his talents will transcend to the next level. Relative to all top 10 picks this year, Young has the highest probability of becoming a bust.
2018 Potential NBA Draft Bust: Jaren Jackson
I watched Michigan State forward Jaren Jackson several times during the 2017-18 college basketball season and remember thinking that he was a “beast” who could excel at the next level. When preparing for this post, I was shocked to learn that he only averaged 11 points and 6 rebounds per game last year. Jackson averaged 3 blocks per game during the season and had seven games with at least 5 blocks so perhaps I based my impression on a limited sample size. As someone who finds truth in numbers, I give Jackson an above-average chance of becoming a bust.