I had finished writing most of this article prior to the start of the 2019 NFL season, but never posted it. Based on my prediction that 2019 #1 overall pick Kyler Murray has/had the best chance of being a bust, I presume you’ll trust me that I didn’t change my initial assessments. Even after watching Murray’s strong start to his career, which resulted in him being named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, I just don’t see him as another sub-6′ QB who can beat the odds.
In the T10B 2018 Mock NFL Draft, I boldly predicted that four quarterbacks would go with the first four picks. I missed the mark with my prediction, but QBs still dominated the early part of the draft. Of note, teams selected four quarterbacks with top 10 picks for the first time in history. I believe that defensive players similarly will dominate the early part of the 2019 NFL Draft with at least five defensive linemen going in the top 10. At the same time, I predict that the draft will be remembered for a quarterback (i.e. Kyler Murray) who doesn’t live up to expectations.
In the 2018 NFL Draft, quarterbacks went with four of the top 10 overall picks for the first time in history. As a result, draft pundits will evaluate this year’s draft class based on the success or failure of QBs Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen. Running back Shaquon Barkley certainly will be part of the conversation, but likely in reference to how he performs relative to the three QBs taken after him. Hopefully, linebacker Shaquem Griffin is not just a footnote and gets remembered for having a successful NFL career despite missing his left hand. It’ll be at least five years before I can definitively declare any Top 10 Busts. In the meantime, I’ll offer my assessment of the early favorites.
With respect to quarterbacks, the 1983 and 1999 draft classes stand out among the rest. Of note, a record six QBs went in the 1st round of the 1983 NFL Draft. Furthermore, teams took QBs with the first three and five of the top 12 overall picks in the 1999 NFL Draft. I believe the 2018 draft class will join these others in the record books based on the fervor surrounding this year’s crop of signal callers. Specifically, I predict that teams will use the top four 2018 draft picks on quarterbacks. Let the games begin!