Value of a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick (Defense)

As detailed in my last post, I was intrigued by Mel Kiper's pre-draft comment that running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon should be avoided in the first round even though they were top prospects. In response, I reviewed previous drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. In this post, I evaluate draft picks on the defensive side of the ball to determine which positions are the most worthwhile. As a quick summary: Defensive Linemen: 5% are complete busts / 45% make at least one Pro Bowl / 20% are truly game changers; Defensive Backs: 10% are complete busts / 60% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers; and Linebackers: 5% are complete busts / 50% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers. Based on these numbers, it appears that defensive linemen offer the best risk/return profile with the lowest percentage of busts and highest percentage of game changers. With respect to defensive backs vs. linebackers, the decision is less clear with DBs having more upside and more downside.
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Value of a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick (Offense)

The most interesting debate from the first night of the 2015 NFL Draft involved the exchange between Chris Berman and Mel Kiper regarding the sensibility of taking a running back in the first round. As Berman pushed for teams to select highly rated running backs Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon, Kiper argued that teams shouldn't waste a first round pick on either player. Specifically, the long-time NFL draft expert claimed productive running backs could be found in later rounds. In response, I researched early first round picks to determine which positions provide the most value. Quarterbacks: 25% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 20% won at least one Super Bowl; Running Backs: 20% were complete busts / 55% became Pro Bowl players / 25% are Hall-of-Fame caliber; Receivers: 10% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 30% could be considered game changers; and Offensive Linemen: 5% were complete busts / 60% became Pro Bowl players /25% made at least five Pro Bowls. So, which position offers the best risk/return profile? You'll just have to read on.
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NFL Draft Busts – The Countdown

This post summarizes the Top 10 Busts from the NFL Draft, as well as a group of Honorable Mentions who just missed the cut. You can refer to individual posts in which each bust is thoroughly evaluated and discussed, but here's a ranking to whet your appetite. #10. Brian Bosworth #9. David Klingler #8. Heath Shuler #7. Jack Thompson #6. Lawrence Phillips #5. Akili Smith #4. Charles Rogers #3. JaMarcus Russell #2. Art Schlichter #1. Ryan Leaf
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Jameis Winston: Projected Top 10 Bust

In the 2015 Rose Bowl, Florida State's chance for a second consecutive FBS title ended with a humiliating 59-20 loss to Oregon. Although only a semifinal game in the first College Football Playoff, the match-up between Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will provide an interesting backdrop as these two Heisman Trophy winners move on to the NFL. As a college superstar who likely will be a top 10 overall pick, Winston will be eligible for consideration as a Top 10 Bust when his career ends. Should I start the betting at five years?
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7 Lessons from Highly Ineffective NFL Draft Picks

When conducting my research, I noticed that many busts could be characterized by recurring themes. I have summarized these themes by presenting them as 7 Lessons from Highly Ineffective NFL Draft Picks. 1. There's no such thing as a sure thing 2. When in doubt, draft offensive linemen and avoid receivers 3. Don't reach with the pick 4. Character matters 5. Avoid players who have peaked already 6. Avoid QBs who were interception leaders in college 7. Get to camp on time Hypothetically, these NFL draft lessons can be applied going forward to help teams avoid making similar mistakes. Regardless, you can apply them when evaluating the draft decisions made by your favorite team.
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Ryan Leaf: #1 NFL Draft Bust

As a redshirt junior in 1997, Washington State quarterback Ryan Leaf won the Sammy Baugh Trophy as the most outstanding passer in the country. Helping his case, he led the nation in passing yards (3,968) and finished second in passing efficiency with a 158.7 rating. For as impressive as those numbers were, they seem even more impressive considering that Peyton Manning was a senior at Tennessee that year and trailed Leaf in both categories. In particular, Manning had 149 fewer yards on 67 more attempts and an efficiency rating that was 11 points lower. Returning the favor, Manning had more touchdowns (36 vs. 34) and won the Davey O'Brien Award as the most outstanding quarterback in the country. Given their success, it was no surprise when they went 1-2 in the 1998 draft. From that moment on, however, their paths diverged to the point of Manning becoming an all-time great and Leaf becoming an all-time bust. Of note, Leaf's career totals of 3,700 yards with 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions were horrendous. In addition, he had a 4-17 record as a starter. As if things couldn't get worse, Leaf has been imprisoned for almost two years because of a drug-related crime. While certain players like JaMarcus Russell, Charles Rogers and Lawrence Phillips are all-time busts, Leaf tops them all as the worst of the worst.
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The Art Schlichter Effect (The Anti-Midas Touch)

According to Greek mythology, Icarus suffered a tragic fate after failing to heed his father's advice about flying too close to the sun. In particular, he fell to his death when the wax binding his wings melted from the sun's heat. Apparently, the ancient Greeks used the legend to teach about the need to avoid hubris (i.e. excessive pride). As detailed in my previous post, Art Schlichter's hubris led to his own tragic fate. In particular, he failed as an NFL player after ignoring advice about the dangers of a gambling addiction. However, unlike Icarus, Schlichter brought down not only himself but also anyone close to him. The following post references another myth by detailing the extent of Schlicter's anti-Midas touch.
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Art Schlichter: #2 NFL Draft Bust

Prior to Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell, Art Schlichter served as the poster child for NFL Draft busts. As a starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes from 1978-81, Schlichter ranked as an NCAA leader in at least one offensive category each year. In addition, he finished 6th or higher in the Heisman voting as a sophomore, junior and senior. Despite his college success, Schlichter failed miserably as a professional. He had approximately 1,000 passing yards with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions during his 13-game NFL career. Furthermore, he never won a single game in six career starts. Adding to his bust status, Schlichter faced numerous suspensions from the NFL for excessive gambling. Never cured of his addiction, he has spent 14 of the last 20 years in prison for gambling-related crimes. With respect to being a Top 10 Bust, Schlichter has it all.
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JaMarcus Russell: #3 NFL Draft Bust

JaMarcus Russell certainly has the résumé to earn the top spot on anyone's all-time bust countdown. After winning the 2006 Manning Award, Russell went to the Oakland Raiders with the first pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. He clearly didn't live up to expectations given his 7-18 starting record and career totals of 4,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. Regardless, I can't rank him higher than #3 because no other quarterback taken in that draft had a successful career. For that reason, his failure seems less dramatic to me. In comparison, the top two NFL draft busts offer poor numbers and drama.
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Charles Rogers: #4 NFL Draft Bust

Despite having numerous high draft picks in the early 2000s, the Detroit Lions couldn't reverse their fortunes as basement dwellers. Specifically, the Lions failed with their selections of Joey Harrington (#3 pick in 2002), Charles Rogers (#2nd pick in 2003), and Mike Williams (#10 pick in 2005). Harrington and Williams underperformed in the NFL, but they both avoided T10B status. On the other hand, Rogers didn't fare so well. Once a consensus All-American at Michigan State, Rogers finished his professional career with fewer than 50 receptions and 500 yards. As such, he deservedly became the #4 NFL Draft Bust.
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