Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson’s Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the T10B Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy showed what teams are willing to do. In comparison, I’m trying to show what teams should do.
As detailed in my last post, I was intrigued by Mel Kiper’s pre-draft comment that running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon should be avoided in the first round even though they were top prospects. In response, I reviewed previous drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. In this post, I evaluate draft picks on the defensive side of the ball to determine which positions are the most worthwhile. As a quick summary:
Defensive Linemen: 5% are complete busts / 45% make at least one Pro Bowl / 20% are truly game changers;
Defensive Backs: 10% are complete busts / 60% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers; and
Linebackers: 5% are complete busts / 50% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers.
Based on these numbers, it appears that defensive linemen offer the best risk/return profile with the lowest percentage of busts and highest percentage of game changers. With respect to defensive backs vs. linebackers, the decision is less clear with DBs having more upside and more downside.
According to Greek mythology, Icarus suffered a tragic fate after failing to heed his father’s advice about flying too close to the sun. In particular, he fell to his death when the wax binding his wings melted from the sun’s heat. Apparently, the ancient Greeks used the legend to teach about the need to avoid hubris (i.e. excessive pride). As detailed in my previous post, Art Schlichter’s hubris led to his own tragic fate. In particular, he failed as an NFL player after ignoring advice about the dangers of a gambling addiction. However, unlike Icarus, Schlichter brought down not only himself but also anyone close to him. The following post references another myth by detailing the extent of Schlicter’s anti-Midas touch.
If given the option to choose between Jerry Rice or Randy Moss, whom would you take as the #1 receiver on your team? Incontrovertibly the two greatest wideouts in NFL history, one proved to be the epitome of excellence while the other had a flair for the spectacular. Moss had impressive career totals of 156 TDs and over 15,000 yards, but fell far short of Rice’s career totals of 197 TDs and almost 23,000 yards. Still, I’d like to ask Tom Brady which receiver he’d prefer to have in his huddle. For that matter, I’d like to ask Joe Montana or Steve Young the same question. I imagine the former 49ers would stick together. However, I’m sure both QBs would wonder what throwing to Moss would have been like.
Before establishing this site, I heard about a Penn State Jinx. Specifically, the jinx refers to great Penn State running backs who failed in the NFL. In this post, I analyze the four running backs usually mentioned in support of the argument. While they don’t deserve to be called Top 10 Busts, their stories help clarify certain exemptions.