Synopsis: Thanks to the shutdown following the spread of COVID-19, the 2020 NBA delayed its annual draft from June to November. Despite the additional time to conduct research, I only started my analysis several days ago. Still, I feel confident in the accuracy of my 2020 T10B Mock NBA Draft. The shortened college season and limiting scouting may complicate matters, but not relative to my approach.
2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT
With less than an hour to spare before the start of ESPN’s coverage, I offer my 2020 T10B Mock NBA Draft.
2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT – SUMMARY STATS
|Mock Pick||Player||School (Team)||Position||Age||Height||PPG||RPG||APG|
|#3||LaMelo Ball||Illawarra Hawks||PG||19||6’6″||17.0||7.6||6.8|
|#4||Deni Avdija||Maccabi Tel Aviv||F||19||6’8″||4.0||2.6||1.2|
|#6||Tyrese Haliburton||Iowa State||PG||20||6’5″||15.2||5.9||6.5|
|#8||Patrick Williams||Florida State||F||19||6’8″||9.2||4.0||1.0|
|#10||Killian Hayes||Ratiopharm Ulm||PG||19||6’5″||12.8||2.3||6.2|
|#11||Devin Vassell||Florida State||SF||20||6’7″||12.7||5.1||1.6|
Note: Does any player stand out as being quite ordinary? If you missed it, take a look at #4.
Believing in the wisdom of the crowd, I simply averaged the projected draft positions from various knowledgeable sources (as detailed in the table below) when coming up with my mock draft. In essence, I relied entirely on the work of others when developing my draft order. Based on past results, I feel confident that my system will prove to be quite accurate.
The sentiment from the previous paragraph might have resonated more if CBS didn’t cancel “Wisdom of the Crowd” in the midst of the #MeToo backlash surrounding lead actor Jeremy Piven. For me, Piven is best known either as John Cusack’s sidekick in numerous movies or . . .
ARI GOLD FROM ENTOURAGE
SUMMARY OF OTHER 2020 MOCK NBA DRAFTS
|Mock Pick||Player||Bleacher Report||CBS Sports||SB Nation||NBA Draft.net||Sporting News||Sports Illustrated||USA Today||ESPN|
Note: Additional commentary from draft night highlighted in red.
SUPREME CONFIDENCE – TOP 3 PICKS
- High confidence with names of top three picks, but not the order.
- Correct names and correct order.
- Trade by New York Knicks or Boston Celtics for Golden State’s #2 pick possible to nab LaMelo.
- Didn’t happen, but worth the shot.
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE – PICKS 4-8
- Pick with upward mobility – Patrick Williams (based on late charge in mock boards during last few hours before the draft)
- Nailed that one when Williams went with the #4 overall pick vs. my prediction at #8
- Made prediction based on experience watching stocks move immediately prior to announcement of “confidential” earnings or merger/sale.
- Early T10B watch as potential bust: Deni Avdija (regardless of position in Top 10)
- Said differently, not worth 4th pick – apparently NBA teams agreed
- Michael Schwartz of EPSN believes Avdija could be the “steal of the draft”
- Hey Mike, don’t hold your breath (or risk your job on that prediction).
- Went #9, so still a possible Top 10 Bust
- Switch of Onyeka Okongwu and Obi Toppin possible if Cleveland wants to go younger (as if a 22-year-old is over the hill)
- By taking a 19-year-old (Okoro) with their pick, Cleveland certainly went younger.
- Okongwu (at #6) went two ahead of Toppin (at #8), so it wasn’t a bad thought.
- I don’t understand Atlanta taking a PG at #6 (with Trae Young on the team), but that’s where Haliburton fell based on the numbers so I’ll stick with it.
- Take partial credit – should have overruled “The Method”
- It’s not a comment about talent, just fit.
- Hamilton viewed as “steal of the draft” by Wojo after going #12.
- Okongwu is a much better fit.
- Take partial credit – should have overruled “The Method”
LIMITED CONFIDENCE – PICKS 9-10
- Devin Vassell and Saddiq Bey as possible sleepers to slip into top 10.
- Comment to players – Be careful what you wish for because picks 11 and higher are exempt from T10B bust status.
- Vassell went #11 – as predicted.
- Jalen Smith went #10 overall – had at #18
- Reach? We’ll see.
With minutes remaining before the draft, it’s time to see how I did.
The rest of the post comes from draft night.
2020 NBA DRAFT – SUMMARY STATS
|Pick||Mock Pick||Team||Player||Position||Rating||Comp Player||PPG||RPG||APG|
|1||1||Minnesota Timberwolves||Anthony Edwards||SG||99||Donovan Mitchell||19.1||5.2||2.8|
|2||2||Golden State Warriors||James Wiseman||C||98||DeAndre Jordan||19.7||10.7||0.3|
|3||3||Charlotte Hornets||LaMelo Ball||PG||96||Jason Kidd||17.0||7.6||6.8|
|8||4||Chicago Bulls||Patrick Williams||F||93||PJ Tucker||9.2||4.0||1.0|
|5||9||Cleveland Cavaliers||Isaac Okoro||SF||94||Andre Iguodala||12.9||4.4||2.0|
|6||7||Atlanta Hawks||Onyeka Okongwu||C||96||Bam Adebayo||16.2||8.6||1.1|
|7||10||Detroit Pistons||Killian Hayes||PG||96||Goran Dragic||12.8||2.3||6.2|
|8||5||New York Knicks||Obi Toppin||F/C||96||Amar’e Stoudemire||20.0||7.5||2.2|
|9||4||Washington Wizards||Deni Avdija||F||94||Hedo Turkoglu||4.0||2.6||1.2|
|10||18||Phoenix Suns||Jalen Smith||PF/C||95||Serge Ibaka||15.5||10.5||0.8|
|11||11||San Antonio Spurs||Devin Vassell||SF||95||Trevor Ariza||12.7||5.1||1.6|
|12||6||Sacramento Kings||Tyrese Haliburton||G||94||Lonzo Ball||15.2||5.9||6.5|
|13||13||New Orleans Pelicans||Kira Lewis||PG||92||Darren Collison||18.5||4.8||5.2|
|14||15||Boston Celtics||Aaron Nesmith||G/F||93||Danny Green||23.0||4.9||0.9|
- Nailed first three picks.
- Regardless of order, correctly identified 12 of top 13 picks
- Overall standard deviation of 2.6 positions with all lottery picks
- Not bad for less than 4 hours of “work”
- Possible future busts:
- #4 Patrick Williams due to last-minute surge.
- #9 Deni Avdija as an overrated international phenom.
- #10 Jalen Smith as a reach.
- Possible value pick:
- Tyrese Haliburton falling to #12 despite being targeted as top 8 pick by all sources highlighted in post.
- ESPN deserves credit for A+ coverage dealing with remote conditions
- Lacked in-person excitement (as described when I went to the 1991 NBA Draft), but better than expected given limitations.
- A lot more raw emotion as players could experience special moment with family and friends.
- Jay Bilas provided a few drinking opportunities by mentioning “wing span” 3-4 times during the first 14 picks.
- Suggest adding when Bilas says “good motor” to increase alcohol intake.
Overall conclusion: Stay with “The Method” until it no longer works.