July 25, 2021

2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT

Synopsis: Thanks to the shutdown following the spread of COVID-19, the 2020 NBA delayed its annual draft from June to November. Despite the additional time to conduct research, I only started my analysis several days ago. Still, I feel confident in the accuracy of my 2020 T10B Mock NBA Draft. The shortened college season and limiting scouting may complicate matters, but not relative to my approach. 


2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT

With less than an hour to spare before the start of ESPN’s coverage, I offer my 2020 T10B Mock NBA Draft.

2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT – SUMMARY STATS
Mock Pick Player School (Team) Position Age Height PPG RPG APG
#1 Anthony Edwards Georgia SG 19 6’5″ 19.1 5.2 2.8
#2 James Wiseman Memphis C 19 7’1″ 19.7 10.7 0.3
#3 LaMelo Ball Illawarra Hawks PG 19 6’6″ 17.0 7.6 6.8
#4 Deni Avdija Maccabi Tel Aviv F 19 6’8″ 4.0 2.6 1.2
#5 Obi Toppin Dayton F/C 22 6’9″ 20.0 7.5 2.2
#6 Tyrese Haliburton Iowa State PG 20 6’5″ 15.2 5.9 6.5
#7 Onyeka Okongwu USC C 19 6’9″ 16.2 8.6 1.1
#8 Patrick Williams Florida State F 19 6’8″ 9.2 4.0 1.0
#9 Isaac Okoro Auburn SF 19 6’6″ 12.9 4.4 2.0
#10 Killian Hayes Ratiopharm Ulm PG 19 6’5″ 12.8 2.3 6.2
#11 Devin Vassell Florida State SF 20 6’7″ 12.7 5.1 1.6
#12 Saddiq Bey Villanova F 21 6’8″ 16.1 4.7 2.4
#13 Kira Lewis Alabama PG 19 6’3″ 18.5 4.8 5.2
#14 Tyrese Maxey Kentucky SG 19 6’3″ 14.0 4.3 3.2
#15 Aaron Nesmith Vanderbilt G/F 20 6’6″ 23.0 4.9 0.9

Note: Does any player stand out as being quite ordinary? If you missed it, take a look at #4.

Believing in the wisdom of the crowd, I simply averaged the projected draft positions from various knowledgeable sources (as detailed in the table below) when coming up with my mock draft. In essence, I relied entirely on the work of others when developing my draft order. Based on past results, I feel confident that my system will prove to be quite accurate.

The sentiment from the previous paragraph might have resonated more if CBS didn’t cancel “Wisdom of the Crowd” in the midst of the #MeToo backlash surrounding lead actor Jeremy Piven. For me, Piven is best known either as John Cusack’s sidekick in numerous movies or . . .

ARI GOLD FROM ENTOURAGE

ari gold.png
Ari Gold deserves consideration as one of the greatest TV characters . . . ever!
SUMMARY OF OTHER 2020 MOCK NBA DRAFTS 
Mock Pick Player Bleacher Report CBS Sports  SB Nation NBA Draft.net Sporting News Sports Illustrated USA Today ESPN
1 Anthony Edwards 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1
2 James Wiseman 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2
3 LaMelo Ball 3 2 1 3 3 3 6 3
4 Deni Avdija 4 4 4 7 4 4 5 4
5 Obi Toppin 5 5 5 4 5 5 8 5
6 Tyrese Haliburton 6 6 6 8 7 8 4 8
7 Onyeka Okongwu 9 9 9 6 9 9 3 6
8 Patrick Williams 7 13 7 5 6 6 13 7
9 Isaac Okoro 8 8 11 9 9 10 12 9
10 Killian Hayes 12 7 8 14 12 7 7 12
11 Devin Vassell 11 11 10 11 10 12 9 10
12 Saddiq Bey 10 10 16 12 11 11 14 11
13 Kira Lewis 15 15 14 10 14 13 10 13
14 Tyrese Maxey 16 18 13 20 15 15 16 16
15 Aaron Nesmith 23 12 12 25 13 17 11 17

Note: Additional commentary from draft night highlighted in red.

SUPREME CONFIDENCE – TOP 3 PICKS

  • High confidence with names of top three picks, but not the order.
    • Correct names and correct order.
  • Trade by New York Knicks or Boston Celtics for Golden State’s #2 pick possible to nab LaMelo.
    • Didn’t happen, but worth the shot.

REASONABLE CONFIDENCE – PICKS 4-8

  • Pick with upward mobility – Patrick Williams (based on late charge in mock boards during last few hours before the draft)
    • Nailed that one when Williams went with the #4 overall pick vs. my prediction at #8
    • Made prediction based on experience watching stocks move immediately prior to announcement of “confidential” earnings or merger/sale.
  • Early T10B watch as potential bust: Deni Avdija (regardless of position in Top 10)
    • Said differently, not worth 4th pick – apparently NBA teams agreed
    • Michael Schwartz of EPSN believes Avdija could be the “steal of the draft”
      • Hey Mike, don’t hold your breath (or risk your job on that prediction).
    • Went #9, so still a possible Top 10 Bust
  • Switch of Onyeka Okongwu and Obi Toppin possible if Cleveland wants to go younger (as if a 22-year-old is over the hill)
    • By taking a 19-year-old (Okoro) with their pick, Cleveland certainly went younger.
    • Okongwu (at #6) went two ahead of Toppin (at #8), so it wasn’t a bad thought.
  • I don’t understand Atlanta taking a PG at #6 (with Trae Young on the team), but that’s where Haliburton fell based on the numbers so I’ll stick with it.
    • Take partial credit – should have overruled “The Method”
      • It’s not a comment about talent, just fit.
      • Hamilton viewed as “steal of the draft” by Wojo after going #12. 
    • Okongwu is a much better fit. 

LIMITED CONFIDENCE – PICKS 9-10

  • Devin Vassell and Saddiq Bey as possible sleepers to slip into top 10.
    • Comment to players – Be careful what you wish for because picks 11 and higher are exempt from T10B bust status.
    • Vassell went #11 – as predicted.
  • Jalen Smith went #10 overall – had at #18
    • Reach? We’ll see.

With minutes remaining before the draft, it’s time to see how I did.


The rest of the post comes from draft night.

2020 NBA DRAFT – SUMMARY STATS
Pick Mock Pick Team Player Position Rating Comp Player PPG RPG APG
1 1 Minnesota Timberwolves Anthony Edwards SG 99 Donovan Mitchell 19.1 5.2 2.8
2 2 Golden State Warriors James Wiseman C 98 DeAndre Jordan 19.7 10.7 0.3
3 3 Charlotte Hornets LaMelo Ball PG 96 Jason Kidd 17.0 7.6 6.8
8 4 Chicago Bulls Patrick Williams F 93 PJ Tucker 9.2 4.0 1.0
5 9 Cleveland Cavaliers Isaac Okoro SF 94 Andre Iguodala 12.9 4.4 2.0
6 7 Atlanta Hawks Onyeka Okongwu C 96 Bam Adebayo 16.2 8.6 1.1
7 10 Detroit Pistons Killian Hayes PG 96 Goran Dragic 12.8 2.3 6.2
8 5 New York Knicks Obi Toppin F/C 96 Amar’e Stoudemire 20.0 7.5 2.2
9 4 Washington Wizards Deni Avdija F 94 Hedo Turkoglu 4.0 2.6 1.2
10 18 Phoenix Suns Jalen Smith PF/C 95 Serge Ibaka 15.5 10.5 0.8
11 11 San Antonio Spurs Devin Vassell SF 95 Trevor Ariza 12.7 5.1 1.6
12 6 Sacramento Kings Tyrese Haliburton G 94 Lonzo Ball 15.2 5.9 6.5
13 13 New Orleans Pelicans Kira Lewis PG 92 Darren Collison 18.5 4.8 5.2
14 15 Boston Celtics Aaron Nesmith G/F 93 Danny Green 23.0 4.9 0.9

Closing Observations:

  • Nailed first three picks.
  • Regardless of order, correctly identified 12 of top 13 picks 
  • Overall standard deviation of 2.6 positions with all lottery picks
    • Not bad for less than 4 hours of “work”
  • Possible future busts:
    • #4 Patrick Williams due to last-minute surge.
    • #9 Deni Avdija as an overrated international phenom.
    • #10 Jalen Smith as a reach.
  • Possible value pick:
    • Tyrese Haliburton falling to #12 despite being targeted as top 8 pick by all sources highlighted in post.
  • ESPN deserves credit for A+ coverage dealing with remote conditions
    • Lacked in-person excitement (as described when I went to the 1991 NBA Draft), but better than expected given limitations.
    • A lot more raw emotion as players could experience special moment with family and friends.
    • Jay Bilas provided a few drinking opportunities by mentioning “wing span” 3-4 times during the first 14 picks.
      • Suggest adding when Bilas says “good motor” to increase alcohol intake.

Overall conclusion: Stay with “The Method” until it no longer works.

2020 T10B MOCK NBA DRAFT

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