While researching potential Top 10 Busts Keith Edmonson and Russell Cross, I learned an interesting sports trivia fact. Specifically, only three college basketball coaches have taken two different schools to the Final Four within four years. First, Gene Barlow took Memphis in 1973 and UCLA in 1976. Second, Lee Rose took UNC-Charlotte in 1977 and Purdue in 1980. Third, Roy Williams took Kansas in 2003 and North Carolina in 2005. Of note, North Carolina (18), UCLA (17) and Kansas (14) have been to 49 Final Fours between them. In contrast, UNC-Charlotte and Purdue have combined to reach only three (i.e. one without Rose). As such, Rose’s achievement should be viewed as the most impressive. Overlooked on every elite coaching list, Lee Rose may deserve special recognition.
Based on the overwhelming fan support Serena Williams received during the 2018 U.S. Open, this post will not be well liked. I certainly cannot deny Serena’s dominance of women’s tennis over the last 20 years. Of note, she impressively has won almost 30% of all Grand Slams contested since her first title at the 1999 U.S. Open. At the same time, an objective observer cannot deny that the younger Williams sister has a bad temper. She has proven to be an accomplished athlete who serves as an inspiration to many. Still, I have nominated her as a T10B Busted nominee because of the excuses she has given to defend her lack of decorum on the court.
To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.