Prior to the 2006 draft, the NBA and the NBPA (National Basketball Players Association) agreed to modify draft requirements such that eligible players now need to be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school. Since most top players currently play college basketball for only one year before declaring for the draft, the requirement has become known as The One-and-Done Rule. This post explores the impetus for the rule change based on the underachievement of certain players who were drafted directly out of high school. While it’s certainly reasonable to declare these underachievers as busts, I fault the teams for their unreasonable expectations of these unproven players. As such, I have established an exemption for players who wouldn’t have met the new eligibility requirements. As the first “None-and-Done” player to fail in the league, Jonathan Bender gets the naming rights. At the same time, #1 overall pick Kwame Brown deserves an assist because he exposed the problem as being worthy of a rule change.
With the 4th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns selected Croatian phenom Dragan Bender. Unlike the first three picks, Bender played exclusively overseas. As such, most of us have no basis to compare him with the other top prospects. Regardless, the “experts” believe he has the talent to become a star. In contrast, I believe he’s more likely to become a bust. I’ll admit that I undervalued 2015 #4 overall pick Kristaps Porzingis. However, I’ll double down and bet that Bender is not another “unicorn.”
Due to the tremendous success of Die Hard (1988), Bruce Willis was given an opportunity to star in a movie based on a character he helped create while still a struggling actor in his twenties. That character was the inspiration behind the action adventure spoof Hudson Hawk (1991). Given the film’s budget of $70 million, fans expected a traditional Bruce Willis action adventure movie, but were forced to sit through a poorly written (and acted) spoof. With only $17 million in gross ticket sales, the movie ended up losing over $60 million for the studio. In addition to suffering financially, the movie suffered critically and won three Razzies for Worst Picture, Worst Director, and Worst Screenplay. Given its failure despite the resources dedicated to it, the movie has earned the #9 spot as a Top 10 Box Office Bust.