THE RANDY MOSS EFFECT

JERRY RICE VS. RANDY MOSS

Synopsis: If given the option to choose between Jerry Rice or Randy Moss, whom would you take as the #1 receiver on your team? Incontrovertibly the two greatest wideouts in NFL history, one proved to be the epitome of excellence while the other had a flair for the spectacular. Moss had impressive career totals of 156 TDs and over 15,000 yards, but fell far short of Rice’s career totals of 197 TDs and almost 23,000 yards. Still, I’d like to ask Tom Brady which receiver he’d prefer to have in his huddle. For that matter, I’d like to ask Joe Montana or Steve Young the same question. I imagine the former 49ers would stick together. However, I’m sure both QBs would wonder what throwing to Moss would have been like.

Teams took quarterbacks with five of the first 12 overall picks in the 1999 Draft. When taken as a whole, the five QBs cover the full spectrum.

Super-star / Probable Hall of Famer: #2 overall pick Donovan McNabb.

6x Pro Bowler with a 98-62-1 career record.
Threw for over 37,000 yards with 234 TDs.
Led team to five NFC Championship Games (including four in a row) and one Super Bowl.

Star: #11 overall pick Daunte Culpepper.

3x Pro Bowler / 2x 1st Team All Pro.
Threw for over 24,000 yards with 149 TDs.
Started career promisingly with an 11-5 record in his first year as a starter, but finished career with 41-59 record.

Disappointment: #1 overall pick Tim Couch.

Averaged 2,200 yards and 13 TDs per year during 5-year career.
Unexceptional, but not as bad as remembered.
Perception of career hurt by 22-37 record as QB of the Browns after the team’s four-year absence from league.

Bust: #12 overall pick Cade McNown.

Finished NFL career with a 3-12 record, 16 TDs and 19 INTs.
Named Honorable Mention Top 10 Bust based on pathetic stats.
To his credit, McNown had a 2-0 record stealing Playboy Playmates.

Top 10 Bust: #3 overall pick Akili Smith.

Proved to be even worse than McNown based on a 3-14 career record with five TDs and 13 INTs.

Both McNown and Smith certainly underachieved enough to be remembered as busts. Another QB from this group may deserve recognition for being overrated.

As a hint, it’s not Tim Couch.

Huh? Well, let me explain.

DONOVAN McNABB – HALL OF FAMER?

McNabb finished his career as a six-time Pro-Bowl quarterback who led the Philadelphia Eagles to five NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl. Based on deep playoffs runs and impressive individual stats, I predict he’ll have a gold jacket and a bust in the NFL Hall of Fame someday.

During his career, McNabb went 98-62-1 as a starter for Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota. That one tie may be more memorable than any of his other regular season games. Despite being a 10-year NFL veteran at the time, McNabb played nonchalantly towards the end of overtime thinking that the Eagles would get another chance in double overtime. He apparently didn’t realize that regular season games could end in a tie. The mistake certainly was boneheaded, but not bust-worthy.

Perhaps the only other blemish in McNabb’s career involved his similarly nonchalant play during crunch time in Super Bowl XXXIX. Even though he denies it, the QB supposedly puked while coming out of the huddle during a key drive at the end of the game. If true, it wouldn’t have been the first time that happened to him during a game.

DONOVAN McNABB – MR. UPCHUCK

Down 24-21 with 46 seconds to go, the Eagles got the ball back for the last time on their own 4-yard line. Whether sick or just tired (as McNabb claims), the quarterback lacked the necessary urgency to lead the comeback. Terrell Owen’s condemnation of his QB after the game may not have been warranted. Regardless, McNabb didn’t take advantage of a potential John Candy moment either.

JOHN CANDY – UNCLE BUCK

unclebuck-candy-cigar-drill — At the start of the 49ers’ game-winning drive in Super Bowl XXII, Joe Montana eased tensions in the huddle by pointing into the crowd and asking “Hey, isn’t that John Candy?”

Despite going to four consecutive NFC Championship games, McNabb only made it to one Super Bowl. Still, he had an illustrious career worthy of Canton. As such, it wouldn’t be appropriate to call him overrated.

By process of elimination, that leaves Culpepper.

DAUNTE CULPEPPER – STAR WITH MOSS / BUST WITHOUT HIM

Undeniably the second best quarterback in the 1999 Draft, Culpepper had several outstanding seasons. However, he had others which were quite bad. As the following table shows, wideout Randy Moss had a big impact in determining Culpepper’s success.

		SEASON AVERAGES
	Overall Record	Games Played	Yards	Yards / Game	TD	INT	Passer Rating
With Moss	36-37	15	3,720	253	26	15	92.8
Without Moss	5-22	5	1,111	184	4	6	71.1

Between 2000-2004, Culpepper had three incredible seasons.

In 2000, when he threw for 3,937 yards and 33 TDs.
- 1,437 yards and 15 TDs to Moss.

In 2003, when he threw for 3,479 yards and 25 TDs.
- 1,379 yards and 12 TDs to Moss.

In 2004, when he won the MVP after throwing for 4,717 yards and 39 TDs,
- 767 yards and 13 TDs to Moss.
- Of note, Moss sat out for three games with a hamstring injury.

During their five seasons together, Culpepper and Moss connected for 5,648 yards and 49 touchdowns. During his five seasons without Moss, Culpepper never threw for more than 1,600 yards or had more than six touchdowns in a season.

Hmm.

As an aside, Gus Frerotte (yeah, the guy who head-butted a concrete wall) started two games for the Vikings in 2003. Culpepper’s replacement won both games after throwing for 506 yards with six touchdowns and only one interception. In those two games, Randy Moss accounted for 253 yards and five touchdowns. To emphasize, Moss accounted for five of the six touchdowns in Frerotte’s two starts.

Double Hmm.

TOM BRADY – BENEFICIARY OF THE RANDY MOSS EFFECT

If Randy Moss could help a decent quarterback become great, imagine what he could have done for a great quarterback. Actually, we can look at Tom Brady to get another view of the Randy Moss Effect. In Brady’s magical 2007 season (the one with a 16-0 regular season), the all-time great QB threw for 4,806 yards and 50 TDs. At the same time, Moss accounted for 1,493 yards and a single-season record of 23 touchdowns.

Excluding that incredible season, Brady has only exceeded 30 TDs three times (2010-2012). In contrast, Peyton Manning has surpassed 40 TDs twice (49 in 2004 and 55 in 2013) and 30 TDs six additional times. Given Manning’s 22 TDs after seven games this year, he almost certainly will exceed 30 TDs for the ninth time and likely will exceed 40 TDs for the third time. In fact, he’s even on pace to surpass 50 TDs for the second time. [As an update, Manning finished the 2014 season with “only” 39 TDs.]

Ten years ago, Brady seemingly became Joe Montana’s successor as the NFL’s G.O.A.T. (Greatest of All Time). At the time, Brady had a 9-0 playoff record and three Super Bowl titles in four years. Although a better quarterback today, he’s only 9-8 in the playoffs and 0-2 in the Super Bowl since then. He may not even be on the Mount Rushmore of NFL QBs anymore. It’s hard to replace Brady as of now. Then again, Peyton Manning may be one Super Bowl victory away from replacing him.

[As a further update, Manning won one more ring but Brady has won two more since I originally wrote this post. Manning finished his career with a 3-1 record against his nemesis in AFC Championship Games and has better individual passing stats. However, Brady’s five to two edge in Super Bowl Championships makes the argument moot.]

ASIDE #1: NFL MOUNT RUSHMORE

In case you’re wondering, I believe the following quarterbacks are the most deserving of football immortality.

Otto Graham (as Washington): the first great QB.
Johnny Unitas (as Jefferson): the greatest QB to overlap the pre/post Super Bowl Era
- One helped transition the doubling of the country while the other helped transition the doubling of the league.
Joe Montana (as Lincoln): The NFL G.O.A.T.

For me, the players up for the Teddy Roosevelt carving include Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Brett Favre, and Dan Marino.

[With two more rings, Brady not only has confirmed his inclusion in the group, but also has replaced Montana as the G.O.A.T.]

If this hypothetical Mount Rushmore included other positions, Jim Brown likely would be the only unanimous choice. After reserving a second spot for Montana, I would accept one player from Group A (Unitas or Rice) and one player from Group B (Dick Butkus or Lawrence Taylor).

ASIDE #2: PATRIOTS COMMENTARY

I don’t know if there’s a correlation or if it’s just a coincidence, but Brady/Belichick haven’t won a Super Bowl since Adam Vinatieri left or Spygate was exposed. I could add that one of Brady’s three Super Bowl titles wouldn’t have happened without the “Tuck Rule,” but then again, he lost another title to one of the most improbable plays in NFL history.

[The previous paragraph clearly no longer applies. After Brady’s fourth title, I argued that it was tainted due to Deflategate. After the fifth one, I became resigned to the fact that Brady and Belichick are both the greatest of all-time.]

THE HELMET CATCH

tyree catch — This picture only makes the catch seem even more improbable.

Unlike “The Catch” or “The Immaculate Reception,” David Tyree’s miraculous grab surprisingly doesn’t have a universally known moniker. Options include: Catch-42 (the play happened in Super Bowl XLII); The E-mmaculate Connection (my favorite given the near sack on the play); and The Helmet Catch (self-explanatory).

CHAD PENNINGTON – ANOTHER BENEFICIARY?

Unlike the prior year when five QBs went in the top half of the first round, only one quarterback (Chad Pennington) went in the first two rounds of the 2000 NFL Draft. Pennington passed for 3,799 yards and 37 touchdowns en route to winning the 1999 Sammy Baugh Trophy as the Most Outstanding college quarterback. Pennington deservedly went with the 18th overall pick. No one knew at the time, however, that the best quarterback (Tom Brady) wouldn’t go until the 6th round.

Pennington became a breakout star during the 1997 college football season. Interestingly, he threw for more yards (3,817) and more touchdowns (42) than during his awarding-winning 1999 season. That breakout year included 1,820 yards and 26 TDs to one receiver. Want to take a guess? That’s right – Randy Moss.

Triple Hmm.

RANDY MOSS – WORTH THE HEADACHE?

Despite Moss’ tremendous talent, many teams avoided him in the 1998 NFL Daft because of numerous off-field issues that led to him losing his scholarship to Notre Dame and getting kicked out of Florida State. To repeat, he got kicked out of Florida State! In that draft (which is remembered more for having Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf go 1-2), Moss fell to the Minnesota Vikings as the 21st overall pick. The player continued to have issues after turning pro, but survived them to become one of the most productive receivers of all-time.

While in the NFL, Moss had a few run-ins with the league office (e.g. positive drug test, fine for squirting water on a ref, fine for an inappropriate touchdown celebration). His response to a question about how he paid the fine he received for “mock-mooning” Green Bay fans is often still quoted.

“STRAIGHT CASH HOMEY!”

The exchange between Moss and the reporter was entertaining to some but poorly received by others. The Vikings clearly fell into the second group because one month later they traded him to the Raiders for a mediocre linebacker and a 1st round pick. Interestingly, Minnesota used that pick to select T10B Honorable Mention Troy Williamson. The team took Williamson hoping that his speed could spread the field like his predecessor used to do. Unfortunately, he just couldn’t catch the ball.

In addition to these league-related issues, Moss faced more serious legal problems when he knocked over a traffic cop with his car and allegedly assaulted a girlfriend to the point that she needed medical attention. No criminal charges were filed in the assault while the incident with the traffic cop was a figurative and literal flop so he escaped any significant repercussions.

Moss was a polarizing player who admittedly didn’t always try his hardest. However, his on-field contributions cannot be questioned. As the second greatest wide receiver of all-time with a WAV of 123, Moss proved to be well worth the risk of a 21st overall pick.