| TOP 10 BUSTS

May 9, 2015September 17, 2016

Value of a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick (Defense)

As detailed in my last post, I was intrigued by Mel Kiper's pre-draft comment that running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon should be avoided in the first round even though they were top prospects. In response, I reviewed previous drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. In this post, I evaluate draft picks on the defensive side of the ball to determine which positions are the most worthwhile. As a quick summary: Defensive Linemen: 5% are complete busts / 45% make at least one Pro Bowl / 20% are truly game changers; Defensive Backs: 10% are complete busts / 60% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers; and Linebackers: 5% are complete busts / 50% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers. Based on these numbers, it appears that defensive linemen offer the best risk/return profile with the lowest percentage of busts and highest percentage of game changers. With respect to defensive backs vs. linebackers, the decision is less clear with DBs having more upside and more downside.

October 7, 2014December 30, 2017

Brian “Boz” Bosworth: #10 NFL Draft Bust:

Just like Dr. Jekyll had Mr. Hyde, Brian Bosworth had "The Boz." Specifically, Bosworth had a larger-than-life alter-ego that couldn't be contained. Unlike Jekyll and Hyde, however, Bosworth (the athlete) and Boz (the media sensation) weren't split personalities. Rather, they were one and the same. Bosworth understood the importance of building a brand, and "The Boz" was his brand. The following post goes through the epic rise and fall of one of the most hyped superstars in college football history. You may not like him more by the end, but you should respect him more.

September 30, 2014October 9, 2016

Steve Emtman Exemption (Too Injured To Play)

As a #1 overall pick with a disappointing NFL career, Steve Emtman often gets mentioned as an all-time bust. I can't refute the first part of that sentence, but the second part ignores the impact that injuries had on his career. In particular, Emtman suffered season-ending injuries in each of his first three years in the league. The 1991 Lombardi Award winner clearly didn't live up to his potential, but I can't justify calling him a bust. In this post, I establish the Steve Emtman Exemption as an Top 10 Bust exclusion for injured players. Furthermore, I discuss the use of it for oft-injured teammate Trev Alberts.