TOP 10 BUSTS

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Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2017 NFL Draft: First Impressions

As a follow-up to the first ever T10B Mock Draft, I offer my initial assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2017 NFL Draft. After all, these players are the only ones drafted high enough to become Top 10 Busts. As of now, I predict that the top of this draft has the potential to be one of the worst ever. At the same time, this might be one of the deepest drafts ever. Don't be surprised if many later-round picks surpass the careers of the players highlighted in this post.
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Buster 26 mins0

Top10Busts Football Index: TFI

Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson's Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the T10B Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy showed what teams are willing to do. In comparison, I'm trying to show what teams should do.
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Buster 19 mins0

Projected 2016 NFL Draft Busts (Overall)

With only a couple days to go before the start of the NFL season, I feel compelled to put a stake in the ground regarding potential 2016 NFL Draft Busts. Prior to the start of training camp this summer, I thought the most likely (although still improbable) busts included: #1 pick Jared Goff; #9 pick Leonard Floyd; and #10 pick Eli Apple. However, #3 pick Joey Bosa has become my overwhelming favorite as a potential Top 10 Bust based on his extended holdout. Jameis Winston received that same designation last year so Bosa shouldn't be too worried. Or should he?
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Buster 22 mins0

2016 Potential NFL Bust: Jared Goff

In an earlier post, I evaluated the trades made by the Rams and Eagles to move up to the first two spots in the 2016 NFL Draft. At that time, I commented that #1 overall pick Jared Goff needed to match the career of Eli Manning and #2 overall pick Carson Wentz needed to match the career of Philip Rivers to be worthy of those trades. Since then, Philadelphia traded QB Sam Bradford so the bar for Wentz has been lowered to Jay Cutler. With respect to these comparisons, Wentz has a reasonable chance to meet the target whereas Goff doesn't. Even on an absolute basis, I predict the #2 pick will outshine the #1 pick throughout their careers.
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Buster 13 mins1

Projected 2015 NFL Draft Busts – Revisited (2016)

Before I provide my assessment of this year's draft, it's only fair that I revisit my evaluation of potential 2015 NFL Draft busts. At this point, there don't appear to be any likely Top 10 Busts from last year's draft. However, two players seem to be on their way to becoming stars. As the only two rookies selected to the 2016 Pro Bowl, #1 pick Jameis Winston and #10 pick Todd Gurley have started their careers very solidly. I'll take credit for calling Gurley a worthy top ten pick. Then again, I have to admit that I thought Winston would be a bust. Overall, I give myself a B- for my predictions. Just like most of the top picks in the 2015 Draft, I had moments to remember and moments to forget.
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Buster 29 mins0

NFL Draft Value: Franchise Quarterback

On the eve of the 2016 NFL Draft, much of the drama surrounding the top two picks has subsided. Over the last two weeks, both the Rams and Eagles traded up in order to secure a potential franchise quarterback. Arguably, it will take several years before anyone can properly evaluate the trades. However, I believe the evaluation can begin already based on the expected value of the draft picks involved. For example, the Rams will win if their pick matches the career of Eli Manning. Similarly, the Eagles will win if their pick matches the career of Philip Rivers. Is either case possible? Certainly. Probable? Certainly not.
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Buster 18 mins1

Jason Smith: Honorable Mention (NFL)

Influenced by impressive combine results, the St. Louis Rams took Baylor OT Jason Smith with the #2 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Despite high expectations, Smith ended his four-year career as the least productive offensive lineman ever taken with a top 5 overall pick. While he seemingly deserves to be labeled a Top 10 Bust, his lack of production can be attributed to a history of serious head injuries. In particular, he suffered two season-ending concussions during his first three years in the league. Smith recovered from the first one, but never started again after the second. It's uncertain how good he might have been without the injuries, but it's unfair to label him as an all-time bust because of them.
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Buster 25 mins0

Jameis Winston: Projected Top 10 Bust (Revisited)

Prior to the 2015 NFL Draft, I identified Jameis Winston as a potential Top 10 Bust. In particular, I labeled him as an interception-prone QB lacking the maturity needed to lead an NFL franchise. Winston proved me wrong by having a productive rookie year on the field and avoiding problems off of it. Of note, he earned a spot in the Pro Bowl and became the inspirational leader of the significantly improved Buccaneers. If his career stalls for whatever reason (e.g. over confidence, decline in work ethic), Winston still may end up being a bust. For now, however, it appears that Tampa Bay made a good choice with its #1 overall pick.
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Buster 17 mins2

Projected 2015 NFL Draft Busts

Throughout the opening night coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper continually stated that teams should avoid running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon in the first round even though they were top prospects. Kiper is well known for making bold speculative predictions, but it seemed like this one could be analyzed. In response, I reviewed drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. I've already written two posts (one focused on offense and the other on defense) discussing the upside and downside associated with those draft picks. In this post, I'll use that analysis to evaluate the first ten overall picks in the 2015 Draft to try to identify the most likely future Top 10 Busts.
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Buster 20 mins0