Every decade, the NBA seems to have a proverbial changing of the guard. Unlike the daily ceremony at Buckingham Palace or Windsor Castle, the revolving door of NBA royalty doesn’t obey a specific schedule. That being said, NBA dynasties historically have fit a recurring time frame such that the team or player’s first title comes towards the beginning and final title comes towards the end of each decade. Supporting this claim, the range of titles for the game’s most dominant players from the last three full decades include: Magic Johnson [1980-1988]; Larry Bird [1981-1986]; Michael Jordan [1991-1998]; Shaquille O’Neal [2000-2006]; and Kobe Bryant [2000-2010]. Assuming LeBron James wins at least one more title this decade, the trend should continue. The one notable exception is Tim Duncan who won his first title in 1999 and most recent title in 2014. Then again, as someone who is often overlooked as one of the game’s most dominant players, “King Duncan” seems to the get the short end of the stick just like his fictional namesake from Macbeth.
While no one involved with Gigli will appreciate the following statement, the movie has become synonymous with a Hollywood failure. It’s why I probably don’t even have to tell you that Gigli rhymes with really. The movie had many flaws (e.g. inane story, bad acting), but it was DOA due to the nonstop coverage of its stars’ scandalous off-screen relationship. In particular, there was no need to see Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez attempt to have a fictional relationship when their actual relationship had played out in front of the media for almost a year. In the movie, Affleck’s character overcomes the hurdle that Lopez’s character is a lesbian. In real life, Affleck overcame the hurdle that Lopez was married. Which conflict seems more interesting to you? After the movie’s flaws were exposed, already weak ticket sales became nonexistent. In fact, Gigli holds two dubious box office records: the largest drop-off in ticket sales after an opening weekend (82%); and the largest drop-off in theaters after two weekends (97%). With production costs rumored to be around $75 million and worldwide ticket sales of $7 million, Gigli earned its spot as the #4 Box Office Bust. Somehow, there still are three movies that were even worse.
To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.