As you might expect, higher draft picks have more productive careers than lower draft picks. Still, have you ever wondered by how much? Pro-football-reference.com has developed a proprietary statistic which can answer that exact question. Called Weighted Career Approximate Value (WCAV), it can be used to compare the overall production of different players. In this post, I use WCAV to evaluate the career of 1999 #5 overall pick Ricky Williams.
Every decade, the NBA seems to have a proverbial changing of the guard. Unlike the daily ceremony at Buckingham Palace or Windsor Castle, the revolving door of NBA royalty doesn’t obey a specific schedule. That being said, NBA dynasties historically have fit a recurring time frame such that the team or player’s first title comes towards the beginning and final title comes towards the end of each decade. Supporting this claim, the range of titles for the game’s most dominant players from the last three full decades include: Magic Johnson [1980-1988]; Larry Bird [1981-1986]; Michael Jordan [1991-1998]; Shaquille O’Neal [2000-2006]; and Kobe Bryant [2000-2010]. Assuming LeBron James wins at least one more title this decade, the trend should continue. The one notable exception is Tim Duncan who won his first title in 1999 and most recent title in 2014. Then again, as someone who is often overlooked as one of the game’s most dominant players, “King Duncan” seems to the get the short end of the stick just like his fictional namesake from Macbeth.
After winning the 2004 Heisman Trophy, USC quarterback Matt Leinart seemed poised to become the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. Despite that prediction, he decided to delay his payday and return to college for his senior season. That decision arguably hurt his draft stock as he ended up going to the Arizona Cardinals with the 2006 #10 overall pick instead. In retrospect, he didn’t even deserve to go that high. The former Trojan threw for 4,000 yards with 15 touchdowns and 21 interceptions during his NFL career. While his on-field performance wasn’t as bad as you might remember, his well-documented off-field activities probably influenced your impression of him. Hey Johnny Football, are you listening?