Prior to the 2005 Draft, the Vikings traded All-Pro wide receiver Randy Moss to the Raiders for a 1st round pick. In need of a deep-ball threat, Minnesota used that pick to take South Carolina wide receiver Troy Williamson. The former Gamecock had noticeable flaws as a receiver, but he certainly could run fast. At the combine, he ran the 40 in a blistering time of 4.32 seconds. Unfortunately, he couldn’t catch the ball. In retrospect, the player’s failure could have been predicted so it’s hard to call him a bust. On behalf of all players taken too early because of combine results, I offer the Troy Williamson Exemption.
NFL teams naturally have higher expectations for their higher draft picks. In reverse, they understand that lower picks offer less value. Based on this reasoning, a player can be drafted too low to be considered a bust because the expectations of him aren’t high enough to warrant that distinction. For purposes of this site, I contend that a player taken outside of the first 10 overall picks cannot qualify as an all-time bust. Consequently, players like 2007 #22 pick Brady Quinn are exempt from consideration as Top 10 Busts.
As you might expect, higher draft picks have more productive careers than lower draft picks. Still, have you ever wondered by how much? Pro-football-reference.com has developed a proprietary statistic which can answer that exact question. Called Weighted Career Approximate Value (WCAV), it can be used to compare the overall production of different players. In this post, I use WCAV to evaluate the career of 1999 #5 overall pick Ricky Williams.