SYNOPSIS: For the second year in a row, the NFL draft is loaded with QB prospects expected to go very early in the first round. Of note, most mock drafts have USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and UNC’s Drake Maye going with the first three picks. Furthermore, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is not expected to drop below#6. The draft seems to be equally loaded with elite receivers as Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers, and Washington’s Rome Odunze are expected to go in the top 10. Over time, QBs and WRs taken early in the draft have proven to be booms or busts. If history repeats itself, there will be at least two busts among this group. As of now, I’m going with the LSU duo of Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers as the most likely potential Top 10 Busts.

2024 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

PRE-DRAFT

In last year’s post, I highlighted the trade which enabled the Carolina Panthers to take Bryce Young with the 2023 #1 overall pick. Specifically, the Bears traded their #1 overall pick to the Panthers for WR DJ Moore (who had 1,364 receiving yards and 8 TDs in his first year in Chicago) plus a bundle of picks (#9 and #61 in 2023, 1st round pick in 2024, and 2nd round pick in 2025). At the time, I commented that Young would need to have a career comparable to Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers for the trade to offer excess value. Given that Carolina “earned” the 2024 #1 overall pick by finishing with the worst record in the NFL last season, the trade is looking even more lopsided because that pick will go to Chicago. Not only will Young need to outplay Caleb Williams (the Bears’ likely pick), but also have a career comparable to Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson to justify the trade. Given Young’s 2-14 record and 33.4 QBR, which ranked 29th out of 30 QBs, it’s no surprise Carolina GM Scott Fitterer was fired at the conclusion of the 2023 season.

NEW METHODOLOGY

For the first 6 years of T10B mock drafts, I relied on the wisdom of the crowd and selected players by averaging the draft order published by the experts from media outlets like ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com. and Fox Sports. For whatever reason, I changed the methodology in 2022 and started included other factors such as player grades and team needs while trying to predict irrational exuberance of desperate GMs. All I did by making the change was demonstrate my own desperation given that the 6th pick (QB Malik Willis) in my 2022 mock draft went 86th and the 8th pick (QB Will Levis) in my 2023 mock draft went 33rd. Hoping to avoid an embarrassing prediction for the 3rd year in a row, I’m going back to the numbers and will take out any subjective evaluation.

With the kickoff of the draft minutes away, it’s time to see how I did.

2024 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT – THE PICKS

2024 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT – GRADES

POST-DRAFT

Given that teams took quarterbacks with 6 of the first 12 overall picks, this was not the year to eliminate the irrational exuberance of GMs from my analysis. Then again, it’s highly unlikely that more than 3 of them will have successful career so this year’s draft could provide fertile ground for a future Top 10 Bust. As a reminder, a player needs to be a top 10 overall pick in order to be qualify as an all-time bust. Based on lessons learned from prior years, the most likely busts from this year’s draft are #2 pick QB Jayden Daniels (style of play prone to injury); #3 pick QB Drake Maye (decline in performance); and #6 pick WR Malik Nabers (speedy college receivers don’t have the same advantage in the NFL). 

Before making any other predictions, I’ll share how I did with my mock draft. 

2024 NFL DRAFT – TOP 17 OVERALL PICKS

While a table with the Top 17 players might seem arbitrary, I simply wanted to include everyone I had as a top 10 pick in my mock draft. Specifically, Dallas Turner was the final pick (#17 overall) of the ones I predicted would go in the Top 10. Obviously, I couldn’t/wouldn’t go that deep in the last two years given that I had top 10 overall picks going in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

As an additional criterion for consideration as a Top 10 Bust, a player must have demonstrated success at the college level. The following table shows that a each of the top 10 overall picks were very accomplished and deserving of being taken so high.

2024 NFL DRAFT – STATS/HONORS

2024 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT