SYNOPSIS: In a return to normalcy, the 2023 NFL Draft should be front-end loaded with up to four QBs going as a top ten overall pick. In contrast, the 4th QB didn’t go off the board until late in the 3rd round last year. With stellar college careers, the most likely top two picks include Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis didn’t have the same success on the field, but their raw talent has been cited when including them high in the draft. In addition to these four prospects, I have rounded out the 2023 Mock NFL Draft with DE Will Anderson Jr., DL Jalen Carter, DE Tyree Wilson, CB Devon Witherspoon, OL Peter Skoronski, and RB Bijon Robinson. So who are the potential busts? Don’t worry, that’ll come later.

2023 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

When introducing the 2022 T10B Mock NFL Draft last year, I acknowledged things would be different because there weren’t any franchise-caliber quarterbacks worthy of a top ten overall pick. Still, I predicted Liberty QB Malik Willis would go with the #6 overall pick given that GMs of bad teams often act irrationally when trying to make a splash or save their jobs. The numbers didn’t support such a high pick, so I changed my long-standing methodology used to generate my mock draft. So much for change because Willis lasted until the middle of the 3rd round before going with the 86th overall pick.

Perhaps I should have stuck to my guns because only 1 QB (Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett at #20 overall) went in the first two rounds with the 4th QB (Mississippi QB Matt Corral at #94 overall) lasting towards the end of the 3rd round. In contrast, I predict teams will use the first two overall picks on QBs this year with the 4th QB coming off the board at the 8th overall pick.

BEARS / PANTHERS TRADE

Before revealing the 2023 T10B Mock NFL Draft, I’ll digress for a moment to analyze the transaction that allowed the Carolina Panthers to trade for the Chicago Bears’ #1 overall pick. In addition to swapping 2023 1st round picks, the Bears picked up another 1st round pick (2024), two 2nd round picks (2023 and 2025), and 3x 1,000-yard receiver DJ Moore from the Panthers. As shown in the table below, the Bears received excess value from the trade.

The table evaluates the transaction based on the difference in the value of the picks according to the Jimmy Johnson Value Chart and the T10B Football Index (a proprietary measure to estimate a player’s career production). Without going into too much detail here, the Bears got excess value of an extra pick somewhere in the top half of the 1st round. Assuming the Panthers take a quarterback at #1, that player will have to have a career at least as good as Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers in order for the trade to make sense.

NEW METHODOLOGY

I mentioned earlier that I changed my methodology when creating the 2022 T10B Mock NFL Draft. At the time, I commented that the change might be short-lived depending on how I did. Even though the tweak resulted in absolute failure because my predicted #6 pick went 86th instead, I’m not going to overreact. Instead, I’ll try to learn from my error while benefitting from past experience. In addition to something old (i.e. ranking players based on their average position in several mock drafts), I embraced something new by also ranking them based on grades given by draft scouts/analysts. At the same time, I considered specific team needs even though any draft night trades could/would/should change the results.

With the kickoff of the draft minutes away, it’s time to see how I did.

T10B 2023 MOCK NFL DRAFT – THE PICKS

2023 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT