Between the retirement of Vince Lombardi in 1968 and arrival of Brett Favre in 1992, the Green Bay Packers experienced a 24-year period of futility. Of note, they had only five winning seasons and two playoff appearances. Their failure can be attributed to monumentally bad draft decisions. The selection of OT Tony Mandarich with the 2nd overall pick in 1989 has received the most notoriety. However, the team also failed by trading multiple high round draft picks for washed-up QB John Hadl in 1974 and selecting QB Rich Campbell with the 6th overall pick 1981. Perhaps starting the downward cycle, Green Bay took QB Jerry Tagge with the 11th overall pick in 1972. This post focuses on that decision and whether Tagge deserves to be considered an all-time bust.
While researching potential Top 10 Busts Keith Edmonson and Russell Cross, I learned an interesting sports trivia fact. Specifically, only three college basketball coaches have taken two different schools to the Final Four within four years. First, Gene Barlow took Memphis in 1973 and UCLA in 1976. Second, Lee Rose took UNC-Charlotte in 1977 and Purdue in 1980. Third, Roy Williams took Kansas in 2003 and North Carolina in 2005. Of note, North Carolina (18), UCLA (17) and Kansas (14) have been to 49 Final Fours between them. In contrast, UNC-Charlotte and Purdue have combined to reach only three (i.e. one without Rose). As such, Rose’s achievement should be viewed as the most impressive. Overlooked on every elite coaching list, Lee Rose may deserve special recognition.
To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.