SYNOPSIS: Unlike the last two years, this year’s NFL draft is not loaded with franchise QBs. While most experts (and gamblers) have Miami’s Cam Ward going to the Tennessee Titans with the #1 overall pick, the next QB may not come off the board until the Steelers make the 21st selection. In comparison, six QBs came off the board within the first 12 picks of the 2024 draft. Last year also was highly unusual because the first 10 picks all played on offense. Based on my mock draft, there should be a more even split with 7 offensive players and 4 defensive players going in the top 10 spots. Lest you think I can’t add, Travis Hunter has All-Pro potential as both a wide receiver and defensive back.
2025 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT
METHODOLOGY
For the first six years of T10B mock drafts, I selected players by averaging the draft order published by the experts from media outlets like ESPN, CBS and Fox. Over the next three years, I changed the methodology and started included other factors such as player grades and team needs. I’m apparently better at analyzing numbers than anticipating the actions of desperate GMs, so I went back to my roots and removed any subjective evaluation. This year, I modified my methodology by including the betting odds for players to go in particular spots. Using a blend of other mock drafts, player grades and betting odds, I offer the 2025 T10B Mock NFL Draft.
2025 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT – THE PICKS
| Pick | Team | Player | College | Height | Weight | Pos. | Mock Draft | Grade (Rank) | Betting Odds |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | Cam Ward | Miami (FL) | 6’2″ | 219 | QB | 1.0 | 9.3 | 1 |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns | Travis Hunter | Colorado | 6′ 0″ | 188 | DB / WR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2 |
| 3 | New York Giants | Abdul Carter | Penn St | 6′ 3″ | 250 | Edge | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | Will Campbell | LSU | 6′ 6″ | 314 | OT | 4.2 | 10.7 | 4 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Ashton Jeanty | Boise St | 5′ 8 1/2″ | 211 | RB | 5.9 | 4.7 | 5 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | Armand Membou | Missouri | 6′ 4″ | 332 | OT | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6 |
| 7 | New York Jets | Mason Graham | Michigan | 6′ 3 1/2″ | 296 | DL | 7.7 | 5.7 | 8 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Kelvin Banks Jr. | Texas | 6′ 5″ | 315 | OT | 9.8 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | Jalon Walker | Georgia | 6′ 1″ | 243 | Edge | 10.6 | 7.3 | 9 |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | Tyler Warren | Penn St | 6′ 5 1/2″ | 256 | TE | 11.2 | 13.3 | 10 |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona | 6′ 4″ | 219 | WR | 11.6 | 11.3 | 12 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | Mykel Williams | Georgia | 6′ 5″ | 260 | Edge | 14.6 | 15.0 | 13 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | Colston Loveland | Michigan | 6′ 6″ | 248 | TE | 15.1 | 8.0 | 14 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | Walter Nolen | Ole Miss | 6 ‘4″ | 296 | DL | 22.6 | 12.7 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | Shemar Stewart | Texas A&M | 6′ 5″ | 267 | Edge | 16.6 | 23.0 | 15 |
ACTUAL PICKS
The following edits (in red) were added after the draft. As you’ll see in the table below, I accurately predicted:
- the first four picks in the correct order;
- the first seven picks with 5-7 out of order;
- 13 of the first 15 picks (including 8-13 out of order).
2025 NFL DRAFT – THE PICKS
| Pick | Mock Draft | Team | Player | Pos. | Awards |
| 1 | 1 | Tennessee Titans | Cam Ward | QB | 1st Team All American / Davey O’Brien (Top QB) |
| 2 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars [1] | Travis Hunter | DB / WR | Heisman Winner / AP POTY / Biletnikoff (Best WR) / Bednarik (Top defender) / Walter Camp POTY |
| 3 | 3 | New York Giants | Abdul Carter | Edge | 1st Team All American / Lombardi Award (Top lineman) / Ted Hendricks (Top DE) |
| 4 | 4 | New England Patriots | Will Campbell | OT | 1st Team All American / Finalist for Lombardi Award (Top OL / DL) |
| 5 | 7 | Cleveland Browns [1] | Mason Graham | DL | 1st Team All American / Outland Trophy (Top lineman) |
| 6 | 5 | Las Vegas Raiders | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 1st Team All American / Doak Walker (Top RB) / Maxwell Award (POTY) |
| 7 | 6 | New York Jets | Armand Membou | OT | 2nd Team All SEC |
| 8 | 11 | Carolina Panthers | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 1st Team All American |
| 9 | 8 | New Orleans Saints | Kelvin Banks Jr. | OT | 1st Team All American / Lombardi Award (top OL), Outland Trophy (Top OL/DL) |
| 10 | 13 | Chicago Bears | Colston Loveland | TE | 2nd Team All Big10 / Finalist John Mackey (TE) |
| 11 | 12 | San Francisco 49ers | Mykel Williams | Edge | 2nd Team All SEC |
| 12 | 27 | Dallas Cowboys | Tyler Booker | Guard | 2nd Team All America / 1st Team All SEC |
| 13 | 24 | Miami Dolphins | Kenneth Grant | DL | 3rd Team All American |
| 14 | 10 | Indianapolis Colts | Tyler Warren | TE | 2nd Team All American / John Mackey (top TE) |
| 15 | 9 | Atlanta Falcons | Jalon Walker | Edge | 3rd Team All American / Butkus Award (Top LB) |
[1] The Browns and Jaguars executed the following trade so Jacksonville could move up to take Colorado WR/DB Travis Hunter with the 2nd overall pick.
BROWNS / JAGS 2025 TRADE EVALUATION
| Jimmy Johnson | T10B | Jimmy Johnson | T10B | ||||||
| Jaguars Get | Raw | Disc | Raw | Disc | Browns Get | Raw | Disc | Raw | Disc |
| 2025 #2 Overall | 2,600 | 2,600 | 95 | 95 | 2025 #5 overall pick | 1,700 | 1,700 | 75 | 60 |
| 2025 4th round (#104) | 86 | 86 | 25 | 25 | 2025 2nd round (#36) | 540 | 540 | 50 | 50 |
| 2025 6th round (#200) | 11 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 2025 4th round (#126) | 46 | 46 | 23 | 23 |
| 2026 1st round | 1,000 | 741 | 65 | 48 | |||||
| Total | 2,697 | 2,697 | 135 | 135 | 3,286 | 3,027 | 213 | 181 | |
As in previous posts, I have evaluated the trade based on the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart and the T10B expected value of a draft pick. While the table shows that the Browns got the equivalent of an extra early 2nd round pick (500 on the Jimmy Johnson scale and 50 on the T10B scale), I argue that the Browns could have gotten more given the unique 2-way talent of Travis Hunter. Of note Hunter received not only the Biletnikoff Award for the nation’s top receiver, but also the Bednarik Award as the nation’s top defensive back.
Overall, I’m quite pleased with the results of the 2025 T10B Mock NFL Draft. While not included in the post draft table, the players predicted to go 14th and 15th in the T10B Mock Draft went 16th and 17th, respectively. As such, I accurately predicted 15 of the first 17 picks, which is the best I have ever done. At this point, I’ll be hard pressed to change the methodology for next year’s draft.
BUST PREDICTION
Based purely on gut (which is unusual for me), I contend the most likely busts from this year’s NFL draft are QB Cam Ward and Edge Abdul Carter. To start, they’re in prime position to underdeliver and be overshadowed as the 1st and 3rd overall picks. Furthermore, Ward spent two years at Washington State (T10B #1 NFL Draft Bust Ryan Leaf‘s alma mater) and Carter went to Penn State, which has a jinxed history with draft busts.
