When committing to Duke, Wendell Carter Jr. thought he would be the best one-and-done Blue Devil available for the 2018 NBA Draft. Unfortunately, 2018 #2 overall pick Marvin Bagley graduated high school early and joined him for their one-year college basketball experience. Carter’s stat line of 13.5 ppg and 9.1 rpg fell short of Bagley’s production of 21.0 ppg and 11.1 rpg. The lesser regarded Dukie can’t be too upset going to the Chicago Bulls with the 7th overall pick. Then again, former Duke players haven’t had the best success in the NBA so perhaps he should be concerned.
To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.
Supernova (2000) seemingly had the ingredients to become a hit movie. First, it starred the incredibly talented James Spader and Angela Bassett. Second, it had state-of-the-art visual effects. Unfortunately, the film suffered because the studio failed to control the creative process. In particular, it endured numerous rewrites and leadership changes while stuck in production for eight years. Despite a budget of over $90 million, it earned less than $15 million at the box office. As a horrendously produced film with a financial loss of over $80 million, Supernova earned the distinction of #7 Box Office Bust.