Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson’s Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the T10B Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy showed what teams are willing to do. In comparison, I’m trying to show what teams should do.
The most interesting debate from the first night of the 2015 NFL Draft involved the exchange between Chris Berman and Mel Kiper regarding the sensibility of taking a running back in the first round. As Berman pushed for teams to select highly rated running backs Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon, Kiper argued that teams shouldn’t waste a first round pick on either player. Specifically, the long-time NFL draft expert claimed productive running backs could be found in later rounds. In response, I researched early first round picks to determine which positions provide the most value.
Quarterbacks: 25% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 20% won at least one Super Bowl;
Running Backs: 20% were complete busts / 55% became Pro Bowl players / 25% are Hall-of-Fame caliber;
Receivers: 10% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 30% could be considered game changers; and
Offensive Linemen: 5% were complete busts / 60% became Pro Bowl players /25% made at least five Pro Bowls.
So, which position offers the best risk/return profile? You’ll just have to read on.
In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday, I have prepared a double feature of Brendan Fraser turkeys as 6A and 6B in the countdown of Top 10 Box Office Busts. I highlighted the failure of Dudley Do-Right (6A) in my last post and will highlight the failure of Monkeybone (6B) in this one. Relative to both movies, Monkeybone cost more to produce ($75 million vs. $70 million) and made less at the box office ($8 million vs. $10 million). With a bigger loss on an absolute and percentage basis, Monkeybone arguably deserves to be called a bigger flop. For me, however, Dudley Do-Right was more bust-worthy given that it bombed despite having a built-in audience from Fraser’s hit George of the Jungle. While certainly not a good movie, Monkeybone at least had originality as well as some interesting special effects