Despite having numerous high draft picks in the early 2000s, the Detroit Lions couldn’t reverse their fortunes as basement dwellers. Specifically, the Lions failed with their selections of Joey Harrington (#3 pick in 2002), Charles Rogers (#2nd pick in 2003), and Mike Williams (#10 pick in 2005). Harrington and Williams underperformed in the NFL, but they both avoided T10B status. On the other hand, Rogers didn’t fare so well. Once a consensus All-American at Michigan State, Rogers finished his professional career with fewer than 50 receptions and 500 yards. As such, he deservedly became the #4 NFL Draft Bust.
In honor of the 20th anniversary of Dumb and Dumber (versus the new release of the far inferior Dumb and Dumber To), this post simplifies the previous one regarding the distribution of win shares for 1st round NBA draft picks. There still are a lot of numbers, but the takeaways should be easier to understand. Just to be sure, here they are.
1. Generally, draft order is a good predictor of future success in the NBA. As such, the higher the pick, the better the player should be to avoid being labeled a bust.
2. Starting with the 11th overall pick, the probability of being a flame-out exceeds the probability of becoming an All-Star by a margin of 2:1 (40% to 20%). For that reason, players taken outside of the first ten overall picks have been excluded as potential Top 10 Busts.
3. NBA legends are rare, but not as rare as you might think.
Before establishing this site, I heard about a Penn State Jinx. Specifically, the jinx refers to great Penn State running backs who failed in the NFL. In this post, I analyze the four running backs usually mentioned in support of the argument. While they don’t deserve to be called Top 10 Busts, their stories help clarify certain exemptions.