In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday, I have prepared a double feature of Brendan Fraser turkeys as 6A and 6B in the countdown of Top 10 Box Office Busts. I highlighted the failure of Dudley Do-Right (6A) in my last post and will highlight the failure of Monkeybone (6B) in this one. Relative to both movies, Monkeybone cost more to produce ($75 million vs. $70 million) and made less at the box office ($8 million vs. $10 million). With a bigger loss on an absolute and percentage basis, Monkeybone arguably deserves to be called a bigger flop. For me, however, Dudley Do-Right was more bust-worthy given that it bombed despite having a built-in audience from Fraser’s hit George of the Jungle. While certainly not a good movie, Monkeybone at least had originality as well as some interesting special effects
Like it or not, the nerds have changed how we look at sports. Thanks to sabermetricians, statistics like OPS and WAR are as recognizable as HR and RBI. Similar to WAR (wins above replacement) for baseball, WiSh (win shares) is an all-encompassing statistic for basketball. Ranked by WiSh, the Top 5 players in NBA history are: 1) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; 2) Wilt Chamberlain; 3) Karl Malone; 4) Michael Jordan; and 5) John Stockton. Without a doubt, each one of those players is a legend of the game. As an all-time NBA ranking, however, it’s just doesn’t work.
Alternatively, the Top 5 players ranked by total MVPs are: 1) Michael Jordan; 2) Bill Russell; 3) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; 4) LeBron James; and 5) Wilt Chamberlain. Aaahhh, much better. Arguably, MVP awards provide a better proxy for all-time greatness than win shares. Regardless, WiSh still can be useful to establish a threshold above which a superstar can be defined. Similarly, it can determine a threshold below which a bust can be defined.
Prior to the 2015 NFL Draft, I identified Jameis Winston as a potential Top 10 Bust. In particular, I labeled him as an interception-prone QB lacking the maturity needed to lead an NFL franchise. Winston proved me wrong by having a productive rookie year on the field and avoiding problems off of it. Of note, he earned a spot in the Pro Bowl and became the inspirational leader of the significantly improved Buccaneers. If his career stalls for whatever reason (e.g. over confidence, decline in work ethic), Winston still may end up being a bust. For now, however, it appears that Tampa Bay made a good choice with its #1 overall pick.
