WAV

Introduction

Value of a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick (Offense)

The most interesting debate from the first night of the 2015 NFL Draft involved the exchange between Chris Berman and Mel Kiper regarding the sensibility of taking a running back in the first round. As Berman pushed for teams to select highly rated running backs Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon, Kiper argued that teams shouldn’t waste a first round pick on either player. Specifically, the long-time NFL draft expert claimed productive running backs could be found in later rounds. In response, I researched early first round picks to determine which positions provide the most value.

Quarterbacks: 25% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 20% won at least one Super Bowl;

Running Backs: 20% were complete busts / 55% became Pro Bowl players / 25% are Hall-of-Fame caliber;

Receivers: 10% were complete busts / 50% became Pro Bowl players / 30% could be considered game changers; and

Offensive Linemen: 5% were complete busts / 60% became Pro Bowl players /25% made at least five Pro Bowls.

So, which position offers the best risk/return profile? You’ll just have to read on.

Introduction

Ricky Williams: Bad Pick vs. Bad Trade?

In general, higher draft picks perform better than lower draft picks. That statement obviously doesn’t tell you anything new. However, have you ever wondered how much better? Fortunately, pro-football-reference.com has developed a proprietary statistic to quantify a player’s value. Called Weighted Average Value (WAV), the statistic can be used to rank all-time greats as well as to determine all-time busts. Furthermore, it can be applied to evaluate trades involving future draft picks. For instance, the Saints gave up draft picks totaling an expected WAV of 175 in order to get the rights to Ricky Williams. You probably already know that the Saints made a bad decision. After reading this post, you’ll learn how bad.

%d bloggers like this: