Prior to the 2015 NFL Draft, I identified Jameis Winston as a potential Top 10 Bust. In particular, I labeled him as an interception-prone QB lacking the maturity needed to lead an NFL franchise. Winston proved me wrong by having a productive rookie year on the field and avoiding problems off of it. Of note, he earned a spot in the Pro Bowl and became the inspirational leader of the significantly improved Buccaneers. If his career stalls for whatever reason (e.g. over confidence, decline in work ethic), Winston still may end up being a bust. For now, however, it appears that Tampa Bay made a good choice with its #1 overall pick.
Intuitively, a higher draft pick has more upside than an lower draft pick, but how much more? This post discusses the quantitative approach used to determine a threshold such that a player can be drafted too low to be considered an all-time bust. Based on the frequency and total number of Pro Bowl selections, there’s a significant drop-off in the upside potential of a player drafted after the first ten overall picks. As such, players selected with the 11th overall pick or later, such as Brady Quinn, are exempt from being Top 10 Busts.