Projections

2018 NFL DRAFT – FIRST IMPRESSIONS

In the 2018 NFL Draft, quarterbacks went with four of the top 10 overall picks for the first time in history. As a result, draft pundits will evaluate this year’s draft class based on the success or failure of QBs Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen. Running back Shaquon Barkley certainly will be part of the conversation, but likely in reference to how he performs relative to the three QBs taken after him. Hopefully, linebacker Shaquem Griffin is not just a footnote and gets remembered for having a successful NFL career despite missing his left hand. It’ll be at least five years before I can definitively declare any Top 10 Busts. In the meantime, I’ll offer my assessment of the early favorites.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2018 T10B MOCK NFL DRAFT

With respect to quarterbacks, the 1983 and 1999 draft classes stand out among the rest. Of note, a record six QBs went in the 1st round of the 1983 NFL Draft. Furthermore, teams took QBs with the first three and five of the top 12 overall picks in the 1999 NFL Draft. I believe the 2018 draft class will join these others in the record books based on the fervor surrounding this year’s crop of signal callers. Specifically, I predict that teams will use the top four 2018 draft picks on quarterbacks. Let the games begin!

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2017 Potential Bust: Mitch Trubisky

Shortly after the conclusion of the 2017 NFL Draft, I offered my initial impressions of the first 10 overall picks. At that time, I commented that seven of those players raised red flags as potential underperformers. Out of those seven, I identified three as the most likely busts. Out of those three, I identified one as the most likely Top 10 Bust. Without further ado, I offer you Mitch “My Mom calls me Mitchell” Trubisky. 

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2017 NFL Draft: First Impressions

As a follow-up to the first ever T10B Mock Draft, I offer my initial assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2017 NFL Draft. After all, these players are the only ones drafted high enough to become Top 10 Busts. As of now, I predict that the top of this draft has the potential to be one of the worst ever. At the same time, this might be one of the deepest drafts ever. Don’t be surprised if many later-round picks surpass the careers of the players highlighted in this post.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts Z Menu

2017 Mock NFL Draft: Top 10 Picks

For the first time, I’ll use my analytical skills to predict the first 10 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Now, others can judge me just like I’ve judged them. Will I be right? Of course not. However, I fully appreciate that there’s more value in the prediction than in the evaluation. In that regard, I’ll offer my version of a 2017 Mock NFL Draft.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts Z Menu

Projected 2016 NFL Draft Busts (Overall)

With only a couple days to go before the start of the NFL season, I feel compelled to put a stake in the ground regarding potential 2016 NFL Draft Busts. Prior to the start of training camp this summer, I thought the most likely (although still improbable) busts included: #1 pick Jared Goff; #9 pick Leonard Floyd; and #10 pick Eli Apple. However, #3 pick Joey Bosa has become my overwhelming favorite as a potential Top 10 Bust based on his extended holdout. Jameis Winston received that same designation last year so Bosa shouldn’t be too worried. Or should he?

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

2016 Potential NFL Bust: Jared Goff

In an earlier post, I evaluated the trades made by the Rams and Eagles to move up to the first two spots in the 2016 NFL Draft. At that time, I commented that #1 overall pick Jared Goff needed to match the career of Eli Manning and #2 overall pick Carson Wentz needed to match the career of Philip Rivers to be worthy of those trades. Since then, Philadelphia traded QB Sam Bradford so the bar for Wentz has been lowered to Jay Cutler. With respect to these comparisons, Wentz has a reasonable chance to meet the target whereas Goff doesn’t. Even on an absolute basis, I predict the #2 pick will outshine the #1 pick throughout their careers.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts Z Menu

Projected 2015 NFL Draft Busts – Revisited (2016)

Before I provide my assessment of this year’s draft, it’s only fair that I revisit my evaluation of potential 2015 NFL Draft busts. At this point, there don’t appear to be any likely Top 10 Busts from last year’s draft. However, two players seem to be on their way to becoming stars. As the only two rookies selected to the 2016 Pro Bowl, #1 pick Jameis Winston and #10 pick Todd Gurley have started their careers very solidly. I’ll take credit for calling Gurley a worthy top ten pick. Then again, I have to admit that I thought Winston would be a bust. Overall, I give myself a B- for my predictions. Just like most of the top picks in the 2015 Draft, I had moments to remember and moments to forget.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

NFL Draft Value: Franchise Quarterback

On the eve of the 2016 NFL Draft, much of the drama surrounding the top two picks has subsided. Over the last two weeks, both the Rams and Eagles traded up in order to secure a potential franchise quarterback. Arguably, it will take several years before anyone can properly evaluate the trades. However, I believe the evaluation can begin already based on the expected value of the draft picks involved. For example, the Rams will win if their pick matches the career of Eli Manning. Similarly, the Eagles will win if their pick matches the career of Philip Rivers. Is either case possible? Certainly. Probable? Certainly not.

Projections Top 10 NFL Draft Busts

Jameis Winston: Projected Top 10 Bust (Revisited)

Prior to the 2015 NFL Draft, I identified Jameis Winston as a potential Top 10 Bust. In particular, I labeled him as an interception-prone QB lacking the maturity needed to lead an NFL franchise. Winston proved me wrong by having a productive rookie year on the field and avoiding problems off of it. Of note, he earned a spot in the Pro Bowl and became the inspirational leader of the significantly improved Buccaneers. If his career stalls for whatever reason (e.g. over confidence, decline in work ethic), Winston still may end up being a bust. For now, however, it appears that Tampa Bay made a good choice with its #1 overall pick.