On the cusp of the 2017 NBA Draft, I’m running out of time to predict the Top 10 overall picks. Earlier this week, the 76ers traded their #3 pick (along with a future 1st rounder) to secure the Celtics’ #1 spot. According to most NBA insiders, Philly will take Washington PG Markelle Fultz. With the 2nd overall pick, the Lakers presumably will select Lonzo Ball. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. As usual, I’ll provide my assessment of potential Top 10 Busts from this draft prior to the start of the upcoming season. For now, here’s my 2017 NBA Mock Draft.
Perhaps more than any other year in recent NBA history, the 2016-17 MVP Award justifiably could go to one of five different candidates. Depending on how you define MVP, you might vote for the following players.
– Best player on the best team (the most popular definition): Kevin Durant.
– Best player on any team (a.k.a. “The Best Player on the Planet”): LeBron James.
– Best two-way player on a Top 3 Team: Kawhi Leonard.
– Best statistical season for a player on a Top 3 Team: James Harden.
– Best statistical season for a player on any team: Russell Westbrook.
When you combine one of these definitions with a season that hasn’t happened for over 50 years, the winner becomes more clear cut. Well, at least my son thinks so.
As a follow-up to the first ever T10B Mock Draft, I offer my initial assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2017 NFL Draft. After all, these players are the only ones drafted high enough to become Top 10 Busts. As of now, I predict that the top of this draft has the potential to be one of the worst ever. At the same time, this might be one of the deepest drafts ever. Don’t be surprised if many later-round picks surpass the careers of the players highlighted in this post.
For the first time, I’ll use my analytical skills to predict the first 10 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Now, others can judge me just like I’ve judged them. Will I be right? Of course not. However, I fully appreciate that there’s more value in the prediction than in the evaluation. In that regard, I’ll offer my version of a 2017 Mock NFL Draft.
On a percentage basis, The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002) ranks as Hollywood’s all-time biggest flop. Specifically, the movie lost 96% of its production budget based on a measly $7 million in ticket sales. Its inflation-adjusted loss of $143 million only trails the $184 million loss realized by #3 Bust: Cutthroat Island. Despite having a smaller financial loss on an absolute basis, Pluto Nash ranks as a higher bust in my countdown. First, it had the potential draw of one-time superstar Eddie Murphy. Second, critics absolutely hated it. With a Metacritic score of 12 and Rotten Tomatoes score of 5%, the former SNL star’s movie had the worst critical reviews of any Top 10 Bust.
Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson’s Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the T10B Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy showed what teams are willing to do. In comparison, I’m trying to show what teams should do.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, Cutthroat Island (1995) continues to be the biggest box-office flop in history. While that distinction alone may be worthy of the top position in my countdown, I just couldn’t rank it higher than #3. In particular, the film lacked true star power and suffered from its studio’s financial difficulties. For me, those qualifications make it less bust-worthy. At the same time, I recognize that the damage created by the movie’s wake has been significant. Of note, the director (Renny Harlin), lead actress (Geena Davis), and lead actor (Matthew Modine) all have been relegated to the small screen. If you don’t recognize those names, you now know why.