In the 1996 NBA Draft, the Golden State Warriors selected Todd Fuller with the 11th overall pick. Despite being a lottery selection, Fuller didn’t live up to expectations. Of note, he finished his NBA career with 835 points and 674 rebounds. Even worse, the Warriors selected him over future Hall-of-Famers Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash. As such, Fuller should be remembered as one of the all-time worst draft picks. Still, the former 1st Team All-ACC honoree shouldn’t be considered a Top 10 Bust. In particular, he just wasn’t drafted high enough to warrant the “honor.”
Just like Brendan Fraser, Warren Beatty earned the dubious distinction of starring in more than one Top 10 Box Office Bust. While the term “star” may have applied to Fraser for a fleeting moment, it most certainly has applied to Beatty for decades. Still the Hollywood legend failed miserably with Ishtar (1987) and Town & Country (2001). Coming in at #10 in my countdown, Ishtar may be a more well-known fiasco. However, I consider Town & Country more bust-worthy. Despite having a strong cast that included Diane Keaton and Goldie Hawn alongside Warren Beatty, the movie didn’t work. In particular, it only grossed $10 million at the box office. With an inflation-adjusted loss of $125 million, Town & Country certainly earned its spot as the #5 Bust.
To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.