Throughout the opening night coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper continually stated that teams should avoid running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon in the first round even though they were top prospects. Kiper is well known for making bold speculative predictions, but it seemed like this one could be analyzed. In response, I reviewed drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. I’ve already written two posts (one focused on offense and the other on defense) discussing the upside and downside associated with those draft picks. In this post, I’ll use that analysis to evaluate the first ten overall picks in the 2015 Draft to try to identify the most likely future Top 10 Busts.
With the 4th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns selected Croatian phenom Dragan Bender. Unlike the first three picks, Bender played exclusively overseas. As such, most of us have no basis to compare him with the other top prospects. Regardless, the “experts” believe he has the talent to become a star. In contrast, I believe he’s more likely to become a bust. I’ll admit that I undervalued 2015 #4 overall pick Kristaps Porzingis. However, I’ll double down and bet that Bender is not another “unicorn.”
With 4,700 yards and 46 touchdowns as the quarterback for the Houston Cougars, Andre Ware deservedly won the 1989 Heisman Trophy. In contrast, he categorically failed in the NFL with career totals of 1,100 yards and five touchdowns. Following a string of successful Heisman winners from 1985-1988 (e.g. Bo Jackson, Barry Sanders), Andre Ware served as the winner who reversed the trend for the next five years (e.g. Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Rashaan Salaam). The following post shows that Ware’s falloff from college to the pros qualifies him as a bust. However, he only started six NFL games so he never really got a fair shot. As such, he earned a T10B Honorable Mention instead of making the actual countdown.