With respect to popularity, the NBA Draft trails only the NFL Draft as a sporting event/spectacle. As such, it seems logical to focus on the NBA for my second compilation of Top 10 Busts. Regardless, the main reason for creating this particular countdown relates to the featured image. In particular, it shows my ticket stub to the 1991 NBA Draft. To date, that draft remains the only one I have ever attended in person. While I don’t provide any insight about a specific bust in this post, I offer some foreshadowing for future posts. As an enticement, there’s also a link to a classic Seinfeld clip regarding political incorrectness.
Excluding the strip sack in the featured imagine, former Packers DE Jamal Reynolds tallied 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble in his unproductive 18-game NFL career. Including the play, Reynolds’ career numbers could be confused with J.J. Watt’s totals from one game. As the 10th overall pick in the 2001 Draft, Reynolds got off to a slow start because of assorted injuries. Even after recovering, he couldn’t get on the field because his replacement played too well. And somehow, we act surprised when football players ignore injuries or concussions. I wonder if Alex Smith knows the feeling?
As detailed in my last post, I was intrigued by Mel Kiper’s pre-draft comment that running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon should be avoided in the first round even though they were top prospects. In response, I reviewed previous drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. In this post, I evaluate draft picks on the defensive side of the ball to determine which positions are the most worthwhile. As a quick summary:
Defensive Linemen: 5% are complete busts / 45% make at least one Pro Bowl / 20% are truly game changers;
Defensive Backs: 10% are complete busts / 60% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers; and
Linebackers: 5% are complete busts / 50% make at least one Pro Bowl / 15% are truly game changers.
Based on these numbers, it appears that defensive linemen offer the best risk/return profile with the lowest percentage of busts and highest percentage of game changers. With respect to defensive backs vs. linebackers, the decision is less clear with DBs having more upside and more downside.