To be fair, the following post is geared towards “quant jocks” (ok, nerds) who have a reasonable knowledge of statistical distributions. In particular, I have used Weibull distributions to model different subsets of 1st round picks from over 40 NBA drafts. With different shape and scale parameters for each subset, the expected value of a draft pick can be estimated with statistical probability. Based on my analysis, I developed a methodology to define a bust objectively in order to overcome the bias which seems to be apparent in existing lists of all-time busts. If you work for an NBA team and came across this site, you should read this post.
Prior to Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell, Art Schlichter served as the poster child for NFL Draft busts. As a starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes from 1978-81, Schlichter ranked as an NCAA leader in at least one offensive category each year. In addition, he finished 6th or higher in the Heisman voting as a sophomore, junior and senior. Despite his college success, Schlichter failed miserably as a professional. He had approximately 1,000 passing yards with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions during his 13-game NFL career. Furthermore, he never won a single game in six career starts. Adding to his bust status, Schlichter faced numerous suspensions from the NFL for excessive gambling. Never cured of his addiction, he has spent 14 of the last 20 years in prison for gambling-related crimes. With respect to being a Top 10 Bust, Schlichter has it all.
Twenty years ago, the NBA celebrated its 50th Anniversary by revealing the names of the 50 greatest players in league history. In anticipation of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary, many sites are starting to compile their own rankings of top players. Given the outstanding players from the last two decades, the league easily could expand the honor to 75 players without diluting quality. At the same time, it could fix the injustice of omitting players like Dominique Wilkins and Walt Bellamy. Thanks to analysis provided by my son, Top10Busts has joined the fray with a ranking of the NBA Top 25. As a teaser, the top five are Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and LeBron James.