Throughout the opening night coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper continually stated that teams should avoid running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon in the first round even though they were top prospects. Kiper is well known for making bold speculative predictions, but it seemed like this one could be analyzed. In response, I reviewed drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. I’ve already written two posts (one focused on offense and the other on defense) discussing the upside and downside associated with those draft picks. In this post, I’ll use that analysis to evaluate the first ten overall picks in the 2015 Draft to try to identify the most likely future Top 10 Busts.
NFL teams took five quarterbacks with the first twelve picks of the 1999 Draft. The careers of those five QBs ran the gamut from great to horrendous.
#2 pick Donovan McNabb proved to be a borderline HOF superstar.
#11 pick Daunte Culpepper) made 3 Pro Bowls
#1 pick Tim Couch didn’t live up to the pick, but produced too much to be declared a bust.
#12 pick Cade McNown underachieved and became a bust.
#3 pick Akili Smith underachieved even more and became a Top 10 Bust.
I will discuss each of these quarterbacks in the following post. However, the last one listed deserves the most attention relative to this site. In 22 career games, he threw for approximately 2,000 passing yards with five touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In addition, he had a record of 3-14 as a starter. As one of the worst quarterbacks ever drafted with an early first round pick, Akili Smith has earned the #5 spot as a Top 10 NFL Draft Bust.
As you might expect, higher draft picks have more productive careers than lower draft picks. Still, have you ever wondered by how much? Pro-football-reference.com has developed a proprietary statistic which can answer that exact question. Called Weighted Career Approximate Value (WCAV), it can be used to compare the overall production of different players. In this post, I use WCAV to evaluate the career of 1999 #5 overall pick Ricky Williams.