As a junior at the University of Tennessee, Heath Shuler finished second in the 1993 Heisman voting. Considered the most NFL-ready quarterback, Shuler skipped his senior year and entered the 1994 Draft. Apparently, Washington agreed with that assessment and took him with the #3 overall pick. Despite any lofty projections, Shuler compiled an 8-14 record as an NFL QB. Since hanging up his cleats, he went into real estate before going into politics. Based on his professional choices, Shuler’s role in the Dish Network commercial may have been the least acting he’s done in the last 20 years.
Throughout the opening night coverage of the 2015 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper continually stated that teams should avoid running backs such as Todd Gurley and Mel Gordon in the first round even though they were top prospects. Kiper is well known for making bold speculative predictions, but it seemed like this one could be analyzed. In response, I reviewed drafts from 1977-2007 to evaluate top ten draft picks by position. I’ve already written two posts (one focused on offense and the other on defense) discussing the upside and downside associated with those draft picks. In this post, I’ll use that analysis to evaluate the first ten overall picks in the 2015 Draft to try to identify the most likely future Top 10 Busts.
If you’re simply looking for a list of well-known NBA underachievers, this post is the one you’ll want to read. Specifically, I have ranked the ten worst draft picks in NBA history as follows:
#10. Greg Oden (Center) – 105 games / 8.0 ppg / 6.2 rpg / 7.3 win shares
#9. LaRue Martin (Center) – 271 games / 5.3 ppg / 4.6 rpg / 1.9 win shares
#8. Dennis Hopson (Shooting Guard) – 334 games / 10.9 ppg / 2.8 rpg / 7.1 win shares
#7. Hasheem Thabeet (Center) – 224 games / 2.4 ppg / 2.7 rpg / 4.8 win shares
#6. Kwame Brown (Center) – 607 games / 6.6 ppg / 5.5 rpg / 20.0 win shares
#5. Todd Fuller (Center) – 225 games / 3.7 ppg / 3.0 rpg / 2.2 win shares
#4. Jon Koncak (Center) – 784 games / 4.5 ppg / 4.9 rpg / 29.2 win shares
Joe Kleine (Center) – 965 games / 4.8 ppg / 4.1 rpg / 19.1 win shares
#3. Michael Olowokandi (Center) – 500 games / 8.3 ppg / 6.8 rpg / 2.5 win shares
#2. Darko Milicic (Center) – 468 games / 6.0 ppg / 4.2 rpg / 7.1 win shares
#1. Sam Bowie (Center) – 511 games / 10.9 ppg / 7.5 rpg / 26.9 win shares
In subsequent posts, I’ll analyze each of these picks and describe why most of them aren’t all-time busts despite their disappointing careers. Hint: the media might have something to do with it.