About This Site

This site was created to answer the all-important question as to whether or not a specific athlete deserves to be called the dreaded B-word. While the answer truly may not be all-important, it matters to us. The posts on this site are based on extensive research with a lot of background and interweaving connections. Said differently, they are more similar to Grantland's 30 for 30 documentaries than SportsCenter's Top 10 Plays. You should think about each entry as a short story more so than a Tweet. If you need ammunition for an argument with rival fan or just have a deep interest in sports, this site should be your one-stop resource.

Differentiation

By design, this site should be drastically different from others you might have seen. In particular, the rankings are based on extensive quantitative analysis more so than unsubstantiated opinions.

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Expanded Purpose

Originally started as a site simply devoted to all-time busts, it has evolved into one with in-depth background stories extending far beyond the players.

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Site Navigation

If you're interested in finding a post regarding a specific person you can use the search bar. Otherwise, the drop-down menus can be used to find all posts related to specific rankings.

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Projected 2015 NFL Busts – Revisited (2016)

Before I provide my assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2016 NFL Draft, it’s only fair that I revisit my projected 2015 NFL Busts. Going with the odds, I predicted most of the players wouldn’t be busts or stars. For now, there don’t appear to be any negative outliers (i.e. likely busts) but there are two positive outliers (i.e. players on their way to being stars). As the only two rookies selected to the 2016 Pro Bowl, #1 pick Jameis Winston and #10 pick Todd Gurley have started their careers very solidly. While I’ll take credit having argued that Gurley was worth a top 10 pick (against the protests of “experts” like Mel Kiper), I have to admit that I thought Winston would be a bust. As discussed in more detail in the following post, I have given myself an overall grade of B- for my predictions. Just like most of the top picks in the 2015 Draft, I had moments to remember and moments to forget.

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Projected 2015 NBA Draft Busts (Overall)

While it’s relatively easy to identify an NBA player as a bust after a few unsuccessful seasons, it’s much harder to project a bust before the player has even played one game in the league. Regardless, I hope to use my research to identify potential busts from the 2015 NBA Draft. So, who are the most likely candidates? My early favorites are Mario Hezonja, Kristaps Porzingis, and Willie Cauley-Stein.

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NFL Draft Busts – The Countdown

This post summarizes the Top 10 Busts from the NFL Draft, as well as a group of Honorable Mentions who just missed the cut. You can refer to individual posts in which each bust is thoroughly evaluated and discussed, but here’s a ranking to whet your appetite.

#10. Brian Bosworth

#9. David Klingler

#8. Heath Shuler

#7. Jack Thompson

#6. Lawrence Phillips

#5. Akili Smith

#4. Charles Rogers

#3. JaMarcus Russell

#2. Art Schlichter

#1. Ryan Leaf

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NBA Draft Busts vs. Worst NBA Draft Picks

If you’re simply looking for a list of well-known NBA underachievers, this post is the one you’ll want to read. Specifically, I have ranked the ten worst draft picks in NBA history as follows:

#10. Greg Oden (Center) – 105 games / 8.0 ppg / 6.2 rpg / 7.3 win shares

#9. LaRue Martin (Center) – 271 games / 5.3 ppg / 4.6 rpg / 1.9 win shares

#8. Dennis Hopson (Shooting Guard) – 334 games / 10.9 ppg / 2.8 rpg / 7.1 win shares

#7. Hasheem Thabeet (Center) – 224 games / 2.4 ppg / 2.7 rpg / 4.8 win shares

#6. Kwame Brown (Center) – 607 games / 6.6 ppg / 5.5 rpg / 20.0 win shares

#5. Todd Fuller (Center) – 225 games / 3.7 ppg / 3.0 rpg / 2.2 win shares

#4. Jon Koncak (Center) – 784 games / 4.5 ppg / 4.9 rpg / 29.2 win shares

Joe Kleine (Center) – 965 games / 4.8 ppg / 4.1 rpg / 19.1 win shares

#3. Michael Olowokandi (Center) – 500 games / 8.3 ppg / 6.8 rpg / 2.5 win shares

#2. Darko Milicic (Center) – 468 games / 6.0 ppg / 4.2 rpg / 7.1 win shares

#1. Sam Bowie (Center) – 511 games / 10.9 ppg / 7.5 rpg / 26.9 win shares

In subsequent posts, I’ll analyze each of these picks and describe why most of them aren’t all-time busts despite their disappointing careers. Hint: the media might have something to do with it.

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Representative NBA Draft Picks (#1 to #10)

When originally preparing my countdown of Top 10 Busts, I reviewed all NBA players drafted since 1970. Of note, I relied on basketball-reference.com in order to compile and analyze the career statistics of these players. By doing so, I was able to create thresholds above or below which they could be grouped. For example, I identified all-time greats, stars, average players, busts, and Top 10 Busts. In this post, I offer the representative NBA draft picks who help define the categories.

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Kris Dunn

Potential Top 10 Bust: Kris Dunn (2016 NBA Draft)

With the 5th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves selected point guard Kris Dunn. As a junior at Providence last year, Dunn averaged 16 points, five rebounds, six assists and two steals per game. Those numbers, which were unmatched by anyone else in the NCAA, earned him 2nd Team All-American honors. Including Dunn, the Timberwolves have amassed a talented group of young players over the last three years. Specifically, they have the last two Rookies of the Year (and #1 overall picks) Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. At the same time, reigning two-time Slam Dunk Champion (and 2014 #13 overall pick) Zach LaVine has shown that he’s not a one-trick pony. It’s too early to tell how good the Timberwolves can be, but Dunn should help make them even more competitive for years to come.

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Potential Top 10 Bust: Dragan Bender (2016 NBA Draft)

With the 4th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns selected Croatian phenom Dragan Bender. Unlike the first three picks, Bender played exclusively overseas. As such, most of us have no basis to compare him with the other top prospects. Regardless, the “experts” believe he has the talent to become a star. In contrast, I believe he’s more likely to become a bust. I’ll admit that I undervalued 2015 #4 overall pick Kristaps Porzingis. However, I’ll double down and bet that Bender is not another “unicorn.”

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NBA TOP 25 GREATEST PLAYERS (2016)

Twenty years ago, the NBA celebrated its 50th Anniversary by revealing the names of the 50 greatest players in league history. In anticipation of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary, many sites are starting to compile their own rankings of top players. Given the outstanding players from the last two decades, the league easily could expand the honor to 75 players without diluting quality. At the same time, it could fix the injustice of omitting players like Dominique Wilkins and Walt Bellamy. Thanks to analysis provided by my son, Top10Busts has joined the fray with a ranking of the NBA Top 25. As a teaser, the top five are Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and LeBron James.

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Potential Top 10 Bust: Jaylen Brown (2016 NBA Draft)

During the 2015-16 regular season, Cal freshman Jaylen Brown put up respectable averages of 15 points and six rebounds per game. At the same time, he shot 46% from the floor (including 31% from behind the 3-point arc). During the 2016 Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments, however, he wilted and averaged only eight points and three rebounds. In those three tournament games, Brown had almost three times as many turnovers (14) as field goals (5). Additionally, he shot an abysmal 17% from the floor, including a 3-17 outing in an 82-78 overtime loss to Utah. Regardless, Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge seemingly went against the grain and took Brown with the team’s #3 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. While it’s unlikely that Brown will be a Top 10 Bust, he certainly is on the radar screen.

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Potential Not T10B: Brandon Ingram (2016 NBA Draft)

With the first overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Ben Simmons. After years of tanking, the Sixers “earned” the right to select one of the highest profile phenoms since LeBron James. Despite conventional wisdom, Brandon Ingram made a legitimate case to be the first pick instead. During his “one-and-done” season at Duke, Ingram averaged 17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. It’s hard to question Phildelphia’s decision; however, the organization has been a complete embarrassment for over a decade. Would you be surprised if 2016 becomes a repeat of 2007 when the Trail Blazers passed on Kevin Durant? Based on Ingram’s upside, you shouldn’t be.

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Potential (Not) T10B: Ben Simmons (2016 NBA Draft)

Going into the 2016 NBA Draft, most experts predicted that Ben Simmons would be the #1 overall pick. During his “one-and-done” season at LSU, Simmons averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two steals per game. Given that production, the young phenom justified the hype which began while he still played in high school. Considered by some to be a “can’t-miss” prospect, Simmons regularly has drawn comparisons to LeBron James. Clearly, Simmons has a long way to go to match the best player on the planet. Sorry Steph, but the King still holds the crown. As of now, Simmons has a blank canvas upon which to paint his career. The odds are greater that Simmons will be a Not Top 10 Bust (i.e. an all-time great) than a Top 10 Bust (i.e. an all-time failure). Yet, I’m still not completely sold on him.

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Most Terrible New York Yankees Trades

It was a dark and stormy night, perhaps somewhere in the world; however, in my environs the unblocked sunlight radiated from our nearest star and penetrated through the depleted ozone layer of the Earth’s atmospheric shell (for it is on this planet that our scene lies) before gently reflecting off the ecru walls surrounding my cubicle and onto my computer screen. In honor one of the the best known examples of superbly horrendous writing from the 19th century, I may have found its rival for the 21st century while trolling the internet recently. In particular, the collection of words titled “15 of the Most Terrible New York Yankees Trades Ever” at todayslifestyle.com is so poorly written that it can only be called a masterpiece.

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2016 NFL Draft: Pre-Draft Trades

On the eve of the 2016 NFL Draft, much of the drama surrounding to the top two picks seemingly has subsided. Over the last two weeks, the Tennessee Titans traded their #1 overall pick to the relocated L.A. Rams, and the Cleveland Browns traded their #2 overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles. Based on what the Rams and Eagles gave up for those picks, each team clearly believes that it will select a future superstar worthy of a major sacrifice. Arguably, it will take several years before we can evaluate the deals based on the players’ actual careers; however, I believe the deals can be evaluated right now based on the expected value of the draft picks involved. Long story short, Jared Goff (assuming he goes #1) will have to be as good as Eli Manning and Carson Wentz (assuming he goes #2) will have to be better than Philip Rivers for the trades to make sense for their new teams. Is either case possible? Certainly. Likely? Certainly not.

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