On the cusp of the 2017 NBA Draft, I’m running out of time to predict the Top 10 overall picks. Earlier this week, the 76ers traded their #3 pick (along with a future 1st rounder) to secure the Celtics’ #1 spot. According to most NBA insiders, Philly will take Washington PG Markelle Fultz. With the 2nd overall pick, the Lakers presumably will select Lonzo Ball. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. As usual, I’ll provide my assessment of potential Top 10 Busts from this draft prior to the start of the upcoming season. For now, here’s my 2017 NBA Mock Draft.
Perhaps more than any other year in recent NBA history, the 2016-17 MVP Award justifiably could go to one of five different candidates. Depending on how you define MVP, you would vote for the following players.
– Best player on the best team (the most popular definition): Kevin Durant.
– Best player on any team (a.k.a. “The Best Player on the Planet”): LeBron James.
– Best two-way player on a Top 3 Team: Kawhi Leonard.
– Best statistical season for a player on a Top 3 Team: James Harden.
– Best statistical season for a player on any team: Russell Westbrook.
When you combine one of these definitions with a season that hasn’t happened for over 50 years, the winner becomes more clear cut. Well, at least my son thinks so.
As a follow-up to the first ever T10B Mock Draft, I offer my initial assessment of the top 10 overall picks from the 2017 NFL Draft. After all, these players are the only ones drafted high enough to become Top 10 Busts. As of now, I predict that the top of this draft has the potential to be one of the worst ever. At the same time, this might be one of the deepest drafts ever. Don’t be surprised if many later-round picks surpass the careers of the players highlighted in this post.
To date, I have evaluated top 10 overall draft picks when determining potential and actual Top 10 Busts. For the first time, I will disclose the players whom I believe will be the first 10 players taken the upcoming NFL Draft. Will I be right? Of course not. However, I fully appreciate that there’s more value in the prediction than in the evaluation. In that regard, I’ll offer my version of a 2017 NFL Mock Draft.
On a percentage basis, The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002) ranks as Hollywood’s all-time biggest flop. Specifically, the movie lost 96% of its production budget based on a measly $7 million in ticket sales. Its inflation-adjusted loss of $143 million only trails the $184 million loss realized by #3 Bust: Cutthroat Island. Despite having a smaller financial loss on an absolute basis, Pluto Nash ranks as a higher bust in my countdown. First, it had the potential draw of one-time superstar Eddie Murphy. Second, critics absolutely hated it. With a Metacritic score of 12 and Rotten Tomatoes score of 5%, the former SNL star’s movie had the worst critical reviews of any Top 10 Bust.
Given their propensity to trade future draft picks in the early 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys developed a quantitative tool to help them make better decisions. Commonly referred to as Jimmy Johnson’s Trade Value Chart, the methodology actually came into existence because of team executive Mike McCoy. Specifically, McCoy developed a numerical value for each draft position such that proposed trades could be evaluated quickly and objectively. Still in use today, that chart reflects how teams seemingly value future draft picks. Similarly, I created the Top10Busts Football Index (TFI) as a mechanism to value future picks based on expected production. McCoy tried to show what teams do. In contrast, I’m trying to show what teams should do.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, Cutthroat Island (1995) continues to be the biggest box-office flop in history. While that distinction alone may be worthy of the top position in my countdown, I just couldn’t rank it higher than #3. In particular, the film lacked true star power and suffered from its studio’s financial difficulties. For me, those qualifications make it less bust-worthy. At the same time, I recognize that the damage created by the movie’s wake has been significant. Of note, the director (Renny Harlin), lead actress (Geena Davis), and lead actor (Matthew Modine) all have been relegated to the small screen. If you don’t recognize those names, you now know why.
Betting against Saturday Night Live might be as futile as betting against Las Vegas. Critics have questioned the continued development of Sin City for decades, yet it continues to grow. Similarly, critics have questioned the sustainability of SNL, yet it remains a mainstay on NBC. Granted, the show is a shadow of its former self considering the unbelievably strong early years. Just look at the featured picture of the Season 2 cast and you’ll see three or four of the all-time best SNL performers. While I’m not willing to bet against the longest running variety show in television history, I fear the end might be coming.
Years from now, most fans will refer to the 2016 NBA Draft as “the one with Ben Simmons.” Generally speaking, we tend to remember the success or failure of the #1 overall pick. For me, however, I’ll remember the 2016 Draft because of ESPN’s entertaining telecast. My son and I already have running jokes about Jay Bilas’ infatuation with wingspans and Lisa Salters’ desire to ask cringe-worthy questions. As of now, the leading contender for future recognition as a Top 10 Bust is #4 pick Dragan Bender. Additionally, #10 pick Thon Maker seems poised to become an Honorable Mention.
Whether reading this post when written in Fall 2016 or at some later time, you likely recognize the image of Colin Kaepernick on one knee. Specifically, the 49ers quarterback single-handedly started a movement to kneel during our national anthem prior to the start of sporting events. Kaepernick presumably decided that his act of defiance would bring a voice to social injustice and oppression. While the message should be incontrovertible, the method has drawn much criticism. As such, the message unfortunately has taken a back seat to the messenger.